Roy Morgan Update July 28, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update on the day Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan resigned under immense pressure with the State facing an election in four months.

The national picture is mixed with rising tensions in the Middle East weighing on Australians and concern rising about the outlook for personal finances, the economy, and inflation.

ALP primary support is unchanged at 27.5%, One Nation up 3% to 25.5%, L-NP Coalition, down 1% to 22% - with the Liberals 18.5% (down 2%) and Nationals 3.5% (up 1%), Greens support is unchanged at 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties are down 2% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted July 20-26, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,643 electors.

The biggest move was the rise in support for One Nation which ‘bounced back’ to 25.5% - driven by increases in the key States of New South Wales (+3.5%), Victoria (+4%), and Queensland (+4%). However, the level of support remains below the highs reached in June of between 26% and 31%.

It’s worth noting support for One Nation weakened during Pauline Hanson’s two-week trip to the UK and Europe, but her return to Australia early last week has re-invigorated her Party’s support.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the Coalition.

If the contest were between ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis ALP is ahead – 54% (down 2%) to 46% (up 2%), based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences.

Against One Nation, the Roy Morgan two-party preferred estimate is 53.5% (down 1.5%) to 46.5% (up 1.5%) in favour of the ALP.

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Whether the contest is ALP One Nation, or ALP L-NP, will depend on the seat-by-seat outcome – and it’s too early to begin detailed analysis – especially given the dramatic rate of change in the parties’ support.

Government Confidence improved this week, but still well below neutral.

A large, albeit reduced, majority of Australians, 58%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 1.5%). Only 27% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 1%).

This results in Roy Morgan Government Confidence increasing 2.5 points to 69, still over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

However, Consumer confidence is down, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 4.4 points to 71.2, its lowest point since mid-June.

All five indices fell with the largest falls being for current buying conditions (down 7% points) and personal finances over the next year (down 6% points).

In concerning news, Australians inflation expectations increased again. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were up 0.1% to 5.9%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.9% in each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have now increased for three straight weeks as Australians eye the situation in the Iran War with concern.

The fuel excise cut is due to end next week, although there is a chance the Albanese Government could extend the cut as petrol prices continue to rise.

Average retail petrol prices increased 9 cents last week due to the renewed tensions in the Middle East driving the oil price up.

On a different note, live theatre attendance rebounds from COVID. New data from Roy Morgan shows more than 3.4 million Australians (14.7% of Australians) attend live theatre, ballet or opera performances in an average three months.

The latest data for the year to March 2026 is unchanged from a year earlier, but above pre-COVID levels from 2019-20.

Live theatre accounted for the majority of the sector’s audience, with almost 3.1 million Australians (13.2%) attending, meanwhile, ballet and opera attendance reached 694,000.

Post pandemic audience numbers rebounded following the reopening of venues and numbers returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.

Over the past two years, numbers have remained stable, and latest estimates show 200,000 more people attending live theatre, ballet or opera compared to pre-COVID level in March 2020.

The rebound in numbers is partly due to the population increase seen since COVID-19. In fact, the percentage share of Australians attending live theatre, ballet or opera is now at 14.7%, down 0.7% points from pre-pandemic.

Nearly three-quarters (72.4%) of live theatre attendees reside in Australia’s capital cities, despite capital cities accounting for only 66% of Australia’s population.

Melbourne and Sydney dominate live theatre attendance, attracting a combined audience of 1.52 million people, around half of all theatre-goers nationally.

Residents of Melbourne and Sydney are 23% more likely than the average Australian to attend live theatre.

Ballet and opera attendance is heavily concentrated in the capital cities, which account for more than 78% of attendees.

Capital city attendance at ballet and opera increased by 11% year-on-year, driven largely by strong growth in Brisbane and Perth, and solid growth in Melbourne and Adelaide.

And finally, today an important study Roy Morgan has conducted with the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) about Cybercrime.

The latest findings show a majority of Australian computer users (63.9%) have experienced cybercrime in their lifetime, and nearly half, (45.1%), in the last 12 months.

Roy Morgan interviewed 10,593 Australian computer users aged 18+ online for the 2025 survey and although overall victimisation rates remain high there were declines for some key measures:

• 24.6% (down 2.5%) experienced online abuse and harassment.
• 20.4% (down 1.7%) experienced identity crime and misuse.
• However, 11.1% (up 1.4%) fell victim to fraud and scams.