Roy Morgan Update July 7, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

ALP primary support is unchanged at 28%, clearly ahead of One Nation, down 3.5% to 22.5%, the L-NP Coalition, unchanged at 21.5% - Liberals 19% and Nationals 2.5% (both unchanged), Greens up 1% to 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 2.5% at 14% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 29 – July 5, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,584 electors.

Support for One Nation has now declined 9% points over the last two weeks after hitting a high of 31.5% when Pauline Hanson addressed the National Press Club for the first time. Hanson’s comments on ‘monoculturalism’ in the address have been heavily scrutinised and publicised in the media.

Analysis of the data by State and Region shows over the last two weeks support for One Nation has dropped by at least 10% points in the Capital Cities, and the three largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a clear majority against either One Nation or the Coalition.

Against One Nation – the Roy Morgan estimate is 56% (up 3%) to 44% (down 3%) in favour of the ALP.

If the contest were between ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis ALP is ahead – 55% (up 1.5%) to 45% (down 1.5%), based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences.

Whether the contest were ALP One Nation, or ALP L-NP, will depend on the seat-by-seat outcome – and it’s too early to begin detailed analysis – especially given the dramatic rate of change in the parties’ support.

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence was virtually unchanged at 67.5, down 1 point.

A majority of electors, 59%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (that’s up 2% since last week), only 26.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 1%).

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is down 1.2 points to 74.7 – now over 25 points below the neutral level of 100.

There was some good news with ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 5.4% - the lowest figure for this estimate for four months since early March although still significantly above the Reserve Bank’s preferred limit of 2-3%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.4% in each of the next two years.

Now to business.

For the month of June Australian Business Confidence recovered slightly, up 1.4 points to 77.5, but still well below the neutral level of 100.

Nevertheless, for the June quarter 2026, Business Confidence hit a record quarterly low of 76.7 – down 15.5 points from the March quarter 2026.

The June quarter figure is 7.6 points below the previous quarterly low of 84.3 in September 2020 during the pandemic.

The drop in Business Confidence in the June quarter came after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates three times so far this year in February, March and May by a total of 0.75% to 4.35% - the equal highest level of interest rates since 2011.

In addition, Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down a controversial Federal Budget in mid-May which included significant changes to the treatment of negative gearing and capital gains taxation.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month, and around 3,500 each quarter, to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Business Confidence is low in all Australian States – and below the level of 90 in all six States for only the second time ever in June.

Western Australia is clearly the lowest at only 59.6, while New South Wales at 83.4 is the highest – but still at a low level.

During the June quarter Mining was the only industry with Business Confidence above the neutral level of 100 on 114.9.

The Mining industry is being boosted by high prices for several key commodities including oil and gas, as well as rare earths and critical minerals.

All other industries are in negative territory below the neutral level of 100.

At the other end of the scale, there are now several industries with low Business Confidence over the last three months including Public Administration & Safety on just 63.2, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on 63.5, Retail Trade on 66.5, Construction on 66.7, and Accommodation & Food Services on 68.6.

Finally, today, new data from Roy Morgan on banking customer satisfaction among home loan customers shows ING most satisfied at 92.1% in May 2026, up 0.9% points from a year ago.

Second is Suncorp Bank on 87.1%, up 2.3% points on a year ago. Filling out the top four banks are Bendigo Bank on 84.1%, up 1.6% points on a year ago and Macquarie in fourth on 79.7%, following an increase of 0.4% points.

From a year ago most of Australia’s major banks have experienced an increase in customer satisfaction.

NAB had the highest rating among the big four banks at 78.8%, and the largest increase in customer satisfaction compared to a year ago, up 6.5% points.

NAB are followed by Commonwealth Bank on 78.7%, ANZ on 75.6% and Westpac on 74.2%.