Roy Morgan Update June 10, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update, Business Confidence drops to a new record low in the first data since the Federal Budget, and the latest Reserve Bank interest rate increase, and a stunning development on Australia’s political scene.

The weekly Roy Morgan Poll shows One Nation primary support up 2.5% to a record high 29.5% - and now ahead of both the ALP and L-NP Coalition for the first time.

ALP primary support is down 1% to 26% and the L-NP Coalition is down 2.5% to only 17.5% - Liberals 14.5% (down 3%) and Nationals 3% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Greens was up 2% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 1% to 11.5%.

Importantly, these trends have been evident for several weeks.

Since the Federal Budget on Tuesday May 12, 2026, primary support for One Nation is up 5% points to 29.5%, ALP support is down 3.5% points to 26%, L-NP Coalition support is down 6.5% points to 17.5%, and Greens support is up 4% points to 15.5%.

These results show the voters are abandoning the traditional major parties and moving to alternatives. In effect, since the Federal Budget, One Nation has gained support at the expense of the L-NP Coalition, and the Greens have gained support at the expense of the ALP.

Although falling behind on primary support, the ALP has maintained its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition on 56% to 44% based on how electors said they would vote.

If the Federal two-party preferred contest is between ALP and One Nation it would be closer, the Morgan Poll estimate is ALP 53.5% ahead of One Nation on 46.5% - unchanged from a week ago.

Either way, if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government according to interviewing conducted from June 1-7, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,631 electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 8 points to 61.5 – almost 40 points below the neutral level of 100.

Only 24% of electors believe the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (that’s down 4%); an increasing majority of 60.5% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 4%).

This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2 points to 70.8 – still low, but the first time the indicator has been above the mark of 70 for three months since early March – before the last two interest rate increases.

The Reserve Bank meets again next week to decide whether to increase interest rates for a fourth time this year.

Consumer Confidence has now been below the level of 80 for 15 weeks and averaged only 66.9 over this period.

Driving the weekly increase was increasing confidence about personal financial situations over the next year and that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items as we enter the End Of Financial Year (EOFY) and Mid-Year sales period.

Net sentiment regarding ‘buying conditions’ has now increased for four weeks in a row and is up by a net 14% points during this period – the largest increase of any indicator.

In not so good news before the Reserve Bank meets next week, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% to 6.1%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.1% in each of the next two years.

The increase in Inflation Expectations came after last week’s announcement that the Fair Work Commission has awarded an increase of 4.75% to 2.8 million workers across the economy, and an increase of 6% for the lowest paid workers of all – a relief to the workers, but a significant cost to many businesses.

Now to business.

For the month of May Australian Business Confidence hit a new record low 76.1, well below the neutral level of 100.

The drop in Business Confidence came after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for a third straight month in May, up 0.25% to 4.35% - the equal highest level of interest rates since 2011.

And after Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down a controversial Federal Budget in mid-May which included significant changes to the treatment of negative gearing and capital gains taxation.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Over the three months to May there was only one industry with positive Business Confidence above the neutral level of 100 – Mining – on 124.1.

The Mining industry is being boosted by high prices for several key commodities including oil and gas, as well as rare earths and critical minerals.

At the other end of the scale, there are now several industries with low Business Confidence over the last three months including Manufacturing on only 71.5, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on just 72.1, Wholesale Trade on 75.3, Construction on 77.2, and Accommodation & Food Services on 78.