Roy Morgan Update June 23, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update. If a Federal Election were held today, it would be ‘too close to call’.

This week One Nation’s momentum continues – with the party increasing its primary support and now up 10% points since the Federal Budget in early May – while consumer sentiment indicators continue to languish deep in negative territory.

Following Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club speech, One Nation primary support is up 2% to 31.5% - clearly ahead of the ALP, down 1% to 27% and L-NP Coalition, up 0.5% to 17.5% - Liberals on 15% (unchanged) and Nationals 2.5% (up 0.5%).

The Greens were down 0.5% to 13.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties were down 1% to 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from June 15-21, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,575 electors.

Support for One Nation has now increased in six out of the last seven weeks since the Federal Budget – increasing from 21.5% (at the start of May) to 31.5% now.

As well as One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson’s first address to the National Press Club, after 30 years in national politics, the success of One Nation’s ‘FIRE THE LIAR’ online fundraiser continued – now raising almost $4.8 million from over 76,000 donors – an average of $63 per donor.

The campaign tagline targets Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

A longer-term view of Australian voting intention since the last Federal Election shows the stunning rise of the One Nation movement since May 2025.

Since the election One Nation’s primary support has increased from 6.4% to 31.5% - a five-fold increase – an estimated over 5 million electors.

The big loser has been the Coalition, down from 31.8% at the election to only 17.5%.

ALP support has also dropped, from 34.5% to 27%.

The other drop has been for Other Parties and Independents as One Nation has consolidated support from other minor parties and right-leaning candidates – down from 15% to 10.5%.

Support for the Greens has been maintained and is up from 12.2% to 13.5% since the election.

Although behind on primary support, the ALP is still competitive on a two-party preferred basis - if a Federal Election were held now the result is ‘too close to call’.

On a two-party preferred basis against One Nation – the Roy Morgan estimate is 51%-49% in favour of the ALP.

However, if the contest is between the ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis the ALP is clearly ahead – 54% to 46 (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences).

Whether the contest is ALP One Nation, or ALP L-NP, will depend on the seat-by-seat outcome – and its too early to begin detailed analysis – especially given the dramatic rate of change in the parties’ support.

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 1.5 points to 61 – almost 40 points below the neutral level of 100.

Only 25% of electors believe the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (down 1.5%); a majority of 64% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (unchanged).

Following the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.1 points to 72.8 – its highest since early March but still way below the neutral level of 100.

In fact, Consumer Confidence has been below the dangerous level of 80 for 17 weeks and averaged only 67.5 over this period.

Driving the increase in Consumer Confidence was improved confidence about buying conditions with people saying it’s a ‘good time to buy’ major household items - up 3% points to 22%.

This indicator has now improved for six weeks in a row by a net 20% points since early May – no surprise given the massive very visible End Of Financial Year Sales.

As you can see though, the net buying sentiment is still well into negative territory at -20% - but this is the “highest” of the five key Consumer Confidence indicators.

All five indicators are deep into negative territory with the lowest being ‘personal finances compared to a year ago’ at -37%.

There was some better news with ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 5.8% - the lowest since early March.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.8% in each of the next two years.

This was no surprise with average retail petrol prices dropping below $1.66 per litre last week – the lowest they have been since September 2022 almost four years ago.

Unfortunately for drivers, the fuel excise cut will start being wound back next week when half of the cut is reversed and petrol prices expected to rise by around 15 cents per litre.

The full cut is now expected to end in early August.

As predicted when interest rates increased in May, the latest Roy Morgan estimates of mortgage stress for May shows an increase of 0.8% - now 29% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.54 million Australians – 65,000 more than April.

As the May interest rate increase flows through to mortgage holders, Roy Morgan forecasts mortgage stress to rise to 29.5% of mortgage holders by the end of July, and if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates again by 0.25% in August, mortgage stress will increase to an estimated 1.6 million mortgage holders – up 62,000 from now.