Roy Morgan Update June 3, 2025: ALP Support up, Consumer Confidence, and Bunnings Most Trusted Brand
In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence, and Most Trusted Brands for March 2025.
Welcome to the Roy Morgan weekly update.
I’m Julian McCrann, Manager of the Roy Morgan Poll, stepping in today for Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine, who is unavailable.
The final Senate results for the new Parliament were calculated last week, and there were a couple of surprises – most notably, One Nation won Senate seats in Western Australia and New South Wales meaning the minor party has four seats on the new Senate crossbench.
In addition, Senator Dorinda Cox from Western Australia – who was not up for election this year – decided to leave the Greens and join the ALP.
The new Senate which is due to sit for the first time in July will comprise 29 Labor Senators, 27 Coalition Senators, 10 Green Senators and 10 crossbench Senators.
To secure a Senate majority Labor can do deals with either the Coalition or Greens to secure a majority of 39 votes, or less likely, all 10 Senate crossbenchers who share diverse views.
The first Roy Morgan Poll since the Federal Election was conducted throughout the month of May with over 5,000 electors – and support for the re-elected Albanese Government has increased.
Two-party preferred support for the ALP increased 3.2% points since the Federal Election to 58.5% well ahead of the Coalition on only 41.5%.
Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) increased a large 15.5 points to 97 in the month of May – although despite the conclusive election result the indicator still remains below the neutral level of 100.
Now a plurality of Australians 44% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 8.5% since April) compared to 41% (up 7%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.
The ALP leads the Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis in all six States – including Queensland, the only State the Coalition won a majority of the vote at the recent Federal Election.
In New South Wales the ALP is up 3.5%, up 3% in Victoria, up 2.7% in Western Australia and up 3.1% in Queensland since the Federal Election and has now gained the lead: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%.
The ALP’s largest two-party preferred lead is in Tasmania with over 70% of the two-party preferred vote and the party maintains a large lead in South Australia.
The ALP holds large two-party preferred leads amongst both genders following the party’s win at the Federal Election.
For women the ALP is on 61% compared to the Coalition on 39%.
For men the ALP is on 55.5% compared to the Coalition on 44.5%.
Analysis by age shows the ALP leading for all age groups aged under 65.
The ALP’s largest lead is for people aged 18-34 with ALP support at over two-thirds of this age group while the closest result is for people aged 65+ with the Coalition holding a narrow lead: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.
Clearly the ALP is in a strong position after its large election win in early May.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence based on interviews conducted last week, has fallen 0.6 points to 86.4.
A look across the index shows the driver of this week’s fall was less confidence about personal finances over the next 12 months with a net movement of 3% points in the wrong direction.
The consecutive weekly declines following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates shows the initial reaction of consumers has not been positive.
It is important to understand that this decline is broad-based – Consumer Confidence over the last two weeks is down for Renters, Home Owners and People Paying Off Their Mortgage.
In more concerning news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were up 0.3% to 4.7% last week.
Australians now expect inflation of 5% over each of the next two years – this is the highest level for this indicator for over a month since late April.
This week Roy Morgan released the highly anticipated latest quarterly survey results on Australia’s most trusted and distrusted brands for the year to March 2025 – and for a sixth straight quarter – Bunnings is Australia’s most trusted brand.
Bunnings is followed by ALDI and Kmart second and third place. And filling out the top six are Apple (in 4th), Toyota (in 5th) and just ahead of Australia Post (in 6th).
Within the top 20, the biggest movers were the Commonwealth Bank, up four spots to 12th most trusted brand, and ING which was up two places to 20th.
The biggest sliders were Target which was down four spots to 16th, and the ABC which slid out of the top 20 for the first time into 21st.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
