Roy Morgan Update June 30, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Young Australians Survey

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Young Australians Survey.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

This week support for One Nation hit a wall – as the party lost support for the first time since the Federal Budget.

The Roy Morgan weekly indicators show a softening of negative sentiment compared to previous weeks – although they are all still well below healthy levels.

ALP primary support is up 1% to 28%, One Nation down 5.5% to 26%, L-NP Coalition, up 4% to 21.5% - Liberals on 19% (up 4%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), Greens down 0.5% to 13%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% at 11.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from June 22-28, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,639 electors.

Before this week, One Nation’s support had increased 10% over the last seven weeks since the Federal Budget.

The turnaround comes after Pauline Hanson’s comments on ‘monoculturalism’ at the National Press Club were heavily scrutinised and publicised in the media.

The Albanese Government’s decision to tinker with the Federal Budget and wind back some of the most contentious issues regarding capital gains tax changes has also potentially contributed to the ALP’s increase in support.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a narrow majority against either One Nation or the Coalition.

On a two-party preferred basis, ALP is now clearly favoured to win against both One Nation and the Coalition. Against One Nation – the Roy Morgan estimate is 53%-47% in favour of the ALP.

If the contest is between ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis ALP is ahead – 53.5% to 46.5% (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences).

Whether the contest is ALP One Nation, or ALP L-NP, will depend on the seat-by-seat outcome – and it’s too early to begin detailed analysis – especially given the dramatic rate of change in the parties’ support.

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence jumped 7.5 points to 68.5.

The majority of electors, 57%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (that’s down 7% since last week), only 25.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 0.5%);

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is up 3.1 points to 75.9 – although low the highest since early March – a clear positive reaction to the Reserve Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in mid-June.

Consumer Confidence is now up 5.2 points over the last two weeks and is up 17.1 points since its all time low in late March.

Driving the increase in Consumer Confidence is less concern about the Australian economy’s performance and views on personal finances over the next 12 months.

39% (down 4%) expect to be ‘worse off’ this time next year, and. 24%, up 2%, now expect to be ‘better off’

Australians are also less worried about the economy.

Now 35% of Australians (down 7%) expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next 12 months and 6% expect ‘good times’.

Although still in negative territory, both indicators are at their highest levels since February – before the war in Iran began.

There was more good news with ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations down 0.2% to 5.6% - the lowest since early March although still above the Reserve Bank’s preferred limit of 2-3%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.6% in each of the next two years.

The fall in Inflation Expectations tracks closely with the drop in the average petrol price. Now below $1.60 a litre for the first time since January 2022 – before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Petrol prices at the pump have fallen over 90 cents per litre since late March and Inflation Expectations came down 1.5% points from the high of more than 7%.

Unfortunately for drivers, in reality the relief will be short lived with the fuel excise cut being wound back in the next few days when half of the cut is reversed and petrol prices are expected to rise by around 15 cents per litre.

The full cut is now expected to end in early August.

New data from Roy Morgan’s Life. Be In It Young Australians Survey shows even our most popular sports are being played by fewer young people (aged 6-13) than a decade ago.

Soccer, Australian young people’s most popular sport is now played by 42%, down from 43% in 2019, and from 49% in 2015.

In second place is swimming, an activity for 38.5% of young people today, down from 46.5% in 2019, and 49% in 2015. As the table shows, swimming was the most popular sporting activity for young Australians in both 2015 and 2019.

This analysis in the table compares 2015 with 2019 (before COVID impacted sports participation) and 2025.

The trend is frighteningly clear. Most concerningly of all, young Australians taking part in any sporting activity at all has declined from 95.5% in 2015, down to 94% in 2019, and now down to only 89.5% - a drop of 6% points in a decade.

Further analysis is being undertaken to understand the drivers of this change in sports activities, as well as the consequences; and to look at where the problem is greatest.

Finally, the political situation in New Zealand where there’s an election in a few months.

The National-led Government has a decisive 9% lead over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition.

Support for the National-led Government is 51% well ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 42%.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is made up of National on 31%, NZ First on 10.5% and ACT on 9.5% - all virtually unchanged on a month ago.

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition includes Labour on 25.5% (down 1%), Greens on 13.5% (up 1%) and the Maori Party on 3%.

Of the parties outside Parliament the centrist Opportunity Party has increased its support to 6.5% - a record high for the party.

The survey results for June if played out at the election would lead to the National-led Government winning 61 seats, Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition winning 51 seats, and the Opportunity Party winning eight seats and entering Parliament for the first time.