Roy Morgan Update March 24, 2026: Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations and Mortgage Stress

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations and Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

In another big week we saw South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas elected in a Labor landslide – Labor (37.7% as of midday Tuesday and well over 30 seats in the 47 seat Parliament) far ahead of One Nation (22.1%), the Liberals (19%), the Greens (10.3%) and Independents and Other Parties (10.9%);

We also had the Reserve Bank raising interest rates for a second month in a row, and the war on Iran intensifying – and there are new records for Roy Morgan indicators

Consumer confidence is down – to a record low, 63.1

Inflation Expectations are up – to a record high, 6.9%

And mortgage stress is on the rise again after a brief respite.

Firstly, to Consumer Confidence, down for a fourth straight week.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 5.4 points to 63.1 – a new record low for the index which stretches back over 50 years.

Consumer Confidence has now fallen 17.1 points in the last four weeks since Israel and the United States began attacking Iran on the last day of February.

The biggest driver of the fall was loss of confidence that now is a ‘good time to buy’ household items (down a net 10% points this week, and down 23% points over the last four weeks).

Also driving the multi-week fall is less confidence about the Australian economy over the next year – this index has fallen by a net 23% points over the last four weeks.

Added to the worries about the conflict are petrol prices and the Reserve Bank last week raising interest rates by +0.25% to 4.1% - a second straight monthly increase.

A look at Consumer Confidence by Housing Status shows that unsurprisingly the biggest weekly fall was for People Paying Off Their Home – down 6.8 points to a record low of only 56.3.

Consumer Confidence for this cohort has now dropped by 21.2 points in the last four weeks.

During that same period Home Owners are down 16.3 points to 65, and Renters are down 14.5 points to 66.2 – now (unusually) the highest of the three housing sub-groups.

Since the war started Australians’ Inflation Expectations have soared.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% points to 6.9% this week – a new record high.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.9% in each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have now jumped 1.7% points in only four weeks, as Australians factor in petrol price increases as well as flow on costs to food and other goods.

During this period Inflation Expectations have jumped most for Renters – up 1.9% points to 7.3%, and for People Paying Off Their Home – up 1.8% points to 7.1%.

And of course driving this rise in Inflation Expectations is prices at the pump which hit a record high of $2.38 per litre last week – and are set to continue to move higher.

Prices have jumped 72 cents since this time last month – a 43.3% increase.

A chart of Inflation Expectations and average petrol prices shows both moving in unison in recent weeks – straight up.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates show mortgage stress increased 1% in February, so 24.9% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.32 million Australians – up 133,000.

The increase follows the Reserve Bank’s decision to increase interest rates in February and is the first increase for the indicator since mid-2025.

Since then, the Reserve Bank increased interest rates again in mid-March, and if they decide to increase rates again at their next meeting (In May) – mortgage stress is set to rise to 30.3% of mortgage holders – an estimated 1.6 million Australians.

Politically these challenges are impacting support for the Labor Government.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll last week shows the two-party preferred result tightened with the ALP 52.5% ahead of the L-NP 47.5% based on how electors said they would vote – the closest result since last year’s election.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a narrow majority according to interviewing conducted from March 16-22, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,664 electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence remained very low. Now 59.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 27% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at just 67.5 – over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

The ALP primary vote was down 1.5% to 27%, the L-NP Coalition up 1.5% to 25.5%, One Nation up 1% to 23.5%, the Greens up 1% to 13.5% and Independents/ Other Parties lost support – down 2% to 10.5%.

The latest ABS employment estimates released last week showed a rising workforce driven by increasing employment – the same result shown by the Roy Morgan employment estimates earlier in the week.

The employment composition for Roy Morgan and the ABS showed a sharp rise in part-time jobs, while full-time jobs fell in both, although the net effect was more overall jobs with a larger share of employed people working part-time than before.

The estimates of unemployment are very different – Roy Morgan 10.6%, 4.3% for the ABS.

Roy Morgan’s ‘Real Unemployment’ estimate was designed by Peter Jonson, former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and measures the true level of unemployment in the economy and doesn’t use strict conditions to reduce the total estimate of unemployment like the ABS estimates do.