Roy Morgan Update March 3, 2026: Federal Vote, South Australian Election and Young Australians Survey

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, South Australian Election and Young Australians Survey.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The Roy Morgan Poll into Federal voting intention shows the ALP leading on 30.5%, the Liberal-National Coalition on 23.5% just ahead of One Nation on 22% (up 1.5% this week).

Support for the Greens 11.5%, and Independents/Other Parties 12.5% according to interviewing conducted from February 23 – March 1, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,554 electors.

Low primary votes for the major parties means distribution of preferences at the Federal Election will be more important than ever.

In calculating a two-party preferred vote,  based on how electors said they would ’vote’, ALP 56% are well ahead of Coalition 44%.

However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 53.5% leads the L-NP 46.5% – a smaller ALP lead.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority given either result.

We believe both methods have value as a way to estimate a two-party preferred result. But since the last election, One Nation has grown from about 6% to 22%, drawing support from across the board. Preferences of this much larger, more diverse cohort, are unlikely to reflect what happened at the last election.

Other factors like the ability of parties to man booths and provide their ‘how to vote’ cards to potential voters are a big influence on the decisions voters make.

Many people only truly decide who they will vote for, and preference, when entering the voting booth on election day.

Importantly, over 95% of interviewing for this survey was completed before the US and Israel attack on Iran carried out on Saturday afternoon (AEDT).

In situations of global tension and conflict, Roy Morgan has observed a tendency of voters to swing behind the Government of the day – this is set to benefit the Albanese Government as the conflict in the Middle East continues.

Although the reaction to conflict overseas can increase Government support, global unrest can mean other indicators fall.

This week Roy Morgan Government Confidence fell. Now 58% of electors, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 26.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at only 67.5 – down 4.5 points from a year ago and over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence reversed last week’s gain and fell 3.1 points to 77.1.

Driving the decrease was less confidence about the Australian economy over the next year (down a net 5% points) and less confidence about personal finances over the next year (down a net 4% points).

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations was virtually unchanged at 5.3% (up 0.1%).

This means Australians expect inflation of 5.3% in each of the next two years.

This is of course much higher than actual inflation, but the truth is, how people feel about things is a much more powerful predictor of how they’ll behave than actual statistics.

A special Roy Morgan Poll of South Australian electors in the lead-up to the State Election in under three weeks shows Labor is set for a landslide victory.

Labor support is 35%, well ahead of One Nation 28% and more than double the Opposition Liberal Party 16.5% on primary vote.

11% support the Greens and 9.5% support minor parties and independents.

Labor’s two-party preferred support is around 60% when compared to either One Nation or the Liberals – up over 5% points from the previous election – and set to deliver popular Premier Peter Malinauskas a large victory later this month.

61% of electors approve of the job Malinauskas is doing as Premier compared to only 37% that disapprove, while Malinauskas is clearly preferred (61% to 30.5%) over Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn.

The survey was conducted from February 19-23, 2026, with a representative South Australian-wide cross-section of 2,172 electors.

Now, looking across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand. With an election due later this year, National’s lead has been cut and is now on 31% just ahead of Labour on 30%.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is down 3.5% to 48.5% (made up of National on 31%, NZ First on 9.5% and ACT on 8%).

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition is up 3% to 47% including Labour on 30%, the Greens on 14.5% and the Maori Party on 2.5%.

If these Roy Morgan results were repeated at this year’s election, the National-led Government would be re-elected with 61 seats compared to 59 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition – a razor-thin majority.

The latest Roy Morgan Young Australian Survey shows playing Roblox is popular among children with 61% of 6-13-year-olds, an estimated 1.7 million, playing Roblox games.

The leading Roblox gaming category is Adventure – played by 43% of Roblox players in this age group – an estimated 737,000 children, followed by Action, 637,000, and Simulation, 541,000.

Both genders show similar interest in Adventure (43% of both boys and girls who play Roblox), while boys drive the numbers for Action (49% to 23%) and Fighting (45% to 10%).

Girls are more interested in Fashion, Music and Party.

Among 10–13 year olds, those who play Roblox are more likely than those who don’t to agree with the following attitudes:

“I would rather play computer games than play outside” (59% to 41%); “I worry about wars” (36% to 24%), and “I worry about terrorism” (68% to 58%).

For more information about the types of media Young Australians aged 6-13 are consuming, visit the Roy Morgan website.