Roy Morgan Update March 31, 2026: Consumer Confidence, Federal Vote and Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Federal Vote & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

In another big week we have seen more records tumble with the ANZ-Roy Morgan key indicators as the fuel crisis continues.

Consumer confidence is down – again – to a record low, 58.8

Inflation Expectations are up – again – to a record high, 7.3%

And support for the Federal Government rises after a landslide election victory for the ALP in South Australia.

Although the official economic numbers aren’t in yet – and won’t be for months – Roy Morgan indicators show Australia is already in a recession – as least as far as Australians are concerned.

Firstly, to Consumer Confidence, now down for a fifth straight week.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4.3 points to 58.8 – a second consecutive record low and the first time the index has ever dropped below 60.

Consumer Confidence has now fallen 21.4 points in the last five weeks since Israel and the United States began attacking Iran a month ago.

The biggest driver of the fall this week was loss of confidence in the economy’s performance over the next five years (down a net 8% points this week).

The biggest drivers of the multi-week fall over the last five weeks is less confidence about the economy’s performance over the next year (down a net 28% points).

Also driving the multi-week fall is less confidence about current buying conditions – this index has fallen by a net 23% points over the last five weeks.

All-in-all confidence has dropped across the board over the last month.

Analysis of Consumer Confidence by Age shows an interesting trend emerging.

Although still low, Consumer Confidence in recent weeks is noticeably higher for the youngest – 71.3 for people aged Under 25, and oldest – 63.3 for people aged 65+.

These are the people most likely to be studying or retired – and least likely to be in the workforce.

In contrast, Consumer Confidence is at record lows for people aged 25-34 (59.7), 35-49 (53.4) and 50-64 (51.4).

These are the people most likely to be in the workforce, raising young families, and paying off large household mortgages – all issues now providing increasing financial stress.

Consumer Confidence for these working aged groups has fallen by around 25 points or more since the war began.

In contrast, Consumer Confidence for young Australians has fallen by just over 13 points and is down by just over 14 points for older people.

Since the war started Australians’ Inflation Expectations have continued to soar.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.4% points to 7.3% this week – a new record high.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 7.3% in each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations have now jumped 2.1% points in the last five weeks, as Australians factor in petrol price increases as well as flow on costs to food and other goods.

Inflation Expectations have jumped at different rates for different age groups – and increasing the most for younger people and the least for older people.

Inflation Expectations are up most for people aged Under 25 – up 3% to 8.3% (and easily the highest of any age group), and up 2.5% to 7.6% - the second highest.

And of course driving this rise in Inflation Expectations is petrol prices at the pump which hit a record high of $2.53 per litre last week.

Petrol prices have jumped 87 cents since mid-February – a 52.6% increase.

On this front there is some good news this week with the Albanese Government announcing a three month cut to the fuel excise – a cut that will effectively cut petrol prices at the pump by almost 30 cents a litre.

This should provide motorists some relief this week heading into the Easter holiday period.

The chart of Inflation Expectations and average petrol prices shows both moving in unison in recent weeks – straight up.

On the political front its been a good week for the Labor Government following on from a landslide election victory in South Australia for popular Premier Peter Malinauskas.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll last week shows the Federal two-party preferred result has the ALP 56.5% (up 4% points) well ahead of the L-NP Coalition 43.5% based on how electors said they would vote.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a large majority according to interviewing conducted from March 23-29, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,562 electors.

However, Roy Morgan Government Confidence remained very low. Now 59.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 25% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at just 65 – 35 points below the neutral level of 100.

Among ALP supporters Government Confidence is high at 127.5 but for supporters of all other parties is well below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 70, Coalition supporters on only 35, and One Nation supporters on just 15. Interestingly, supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 56.5.

The ALP primary vote was up 3% to 30%, the L-NP Coalition down 3% to 22.5% - Liberals down 2% to 19.5% & Nationals down 1% to 3%.

Support for other parties was unchanged with One Nation 23.5%, Greens 13.5% and Independents/ Other Parties on 10.5%.

Now, looking across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand – and the latest results are extremely tight.

With an election due later this year the two sides are essentially even, the National-led Government on 47.5% and the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 48%.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is made up of National on 26.5%, NZ First on 11% and ACT on 10%.

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition includes Labour on 34%, the Greens on 11% and the Maori Party on 3%.

The survey results for March would lead to both sides winning 60 seats each – a Parliamentary tie.

And looking forward to next week I’ll be back to bring you the latest data for Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, Inflation Expectations, and the latest Voting Intention.

The nation is at a fragile stage. These ANZ-Roy Morgan indicators of how Australians feel have never been more important.

Those who follow economic cycles know that how people feel about events and situations is more important than the event itself.