Roy Morgan Update May 19, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mobile Phone eSIM

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mobile Phone eSIM.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Last week’s Federal Budget delivered by Treasurer Jim Chalmers has created much discussion, but how has it impacted the Roy Morgan weekly indicators?

The answer is positively, but against a series of very low bases.

First, Consumer Confidence, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.3 points to 66.4 – that’s 34.6 points below the baseline of 100.

Consumer Confidence has now been below the level of 70 for 10 weeks and averaged only 64.7 over this period.

There were increases across the index with Australians feeling a little more confident the performance of the Australian economy going forward, and whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items.

Also positive was a drop in Inflation Expectations. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations decreased 0.4% to 6% - now the lowest since early March.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6% in each of the next two years.

Inflation Expectations (although still high) have now dropped 1.3% points since peaking in late March at 7.3%.

In another positive, Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased 3 points to 68 – this is the highest the indicator has been since the war in Iran started. However, the indicator is still very low – over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

Only 26.5% of electors believe the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (that’s up 1.5%); a clear majority of 58.5% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 1.5%).

And now for voting intention. An initial snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted the day after the Federal Budget showed a hit to support for the Albanese Government – the poll showed One Nation with more primary support than Labor or the Coalition – an immediate ‘knee-jerk’ reaction.

However, after electors preferences were allocated the poll showed the ALP on 51% still holding a narrow two-party preferred lead over One Nation on 49%.

The weekly Roy Morgan Poll (May 11-17) shows both major parties down and One Nation up – a similar trend but nowhere near as dramatic, as the snap poll taken immediately after the Budget.

ALP primary support down 1% week-on-week to 29.5%, L-NP Coalition down 1% to 24% (Liberals unchanged on 21% and Nationals down 1% to 3%). Support for One Nation increased 2.5% to 24.5%, Greens unchanged on 11.5%, and support for Independents/ Other Parties virtually unchanged on 10.5%.

The net result was that the Federal two-party preferred result was little changed with the ALP 54% ahead of the Coalition 46% based on how electors said they would vote.

If the Federal two-party preferred contest is between the ALP and One Nation, the Morgan Poll estimates the ALP on 54% ahead of One Nation on 46% - an identical result.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government according to interviewing conducted from May 11-17, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,668 electors.

And now to the car market.

New Roy Morgan data for March 2026 shows new car buying intention has hit a five-year low. Just 16%, or 3.8 million Australians aged 14+, intend to buy a new car in the next four years, down 4% points from a high of 20% in March 2023.

Interest in ‘Used Cars’ remained steady over the last few years with around 1-in-4 Australians (25% in March 2023 to 26% March 2026) saying they are looking to purchase a Used Car in the next 4 years.

For more detail on what types of cars Australians are buying these days head over to the Roy Morgan website.

And now to mobile phones, and in particular e-SIMs, or Embedded SIMs – where you don’t need a physical SIM card in your mobile phone.

Embedded SIMs were first introduced into the Australian market in 2019 and new data from Roy Morgan shows awareness of eSIMs has grown strongly in recent years, with 60% of mobile phone users aware of eSIMs as of March 2026, up from 41% two years ago.

New data from Roy Morgan shows ‘eSIM’ users are twice as likely to have switched service providers in the last 12 months compared to an average mobile phone user.

24% of eSIM users switched service provider in the last 12 months, compared to a 12% switching rate among all mobile phone users.