Roy Morgan Update May 5, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The economic backdrop is harsher than the headline numbers suggest – and the people know it with real unemployment at 10.5% of the workforce and mortgage stress at 26.8% of mortgage holders, and businesses know it.

In possibly the most important indicator of all, Business Confidence for April plunged 14.2 points to a record low of 76.5.

This is 0.4 points below the previous record low of 76.9 reached in April 2020 – at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Next Consumer Confidence – interviewed before today’s Reserve Bank meeting… at which the Bank decided to raise interest rates for a third straight meeting – as widely predicted by many market watchers.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down slightly by 0.6 points to 67.2 this week – remember, 100 is the baseline where equal numbers of people are optimists and pessimists – so 67.2 means pessimism clearly outweighs optimism among consumers.

Driving the decline were more worries about the long-term state of the economy, and fewer Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items – down 2% to only 15%.

There was a slight increase to Inflation Expectations. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.1% to 6.7%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.7% in each of the next two years.

Again, the people are feeling more concerned about inflation than the official figures record – with or without the short-term impact of petrol prices.

Despite this, Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased.

Now 26.5% of electors believe the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (that’s up 1%), but a majority 59% still say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Overall, Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 2.5 points to 67.5 – still over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows the ALP maintaining their lead and the Coalition now moving ahead of One Nation for support.

ALP primary support 29.5%, L-NP Coalition up 1.5% to 24% (Liberals up 2% to 21% and Nationals on 3%), with One Nation down 1% to 21.5%.

The Greens were 13% and Independents/ Other Parties on 12%.

The Federal two-party preferred result was unchanged this week with the ALP 54.5% ahead of the Coalition 45.5% based on how electors said they would vote.

This is not surprising given Coalition support increased at the expense of One Nation. Ie, the movement in primary vote was within the conservative side of politics.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a large majority according to interviewing conducted from April 27 – May 3, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,681 electors.

And back to Business Confidence – Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence has now fallen by a combined 28.5 points this year after ending 2025 at a positive rating of 105.

The biggest driver of the fall was a loss of confidence about the Australian economy’s performance – now 61.3% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year – up 13.5% points on a month ago.

In addition, only 37.2% of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year – down 13.2% points. This is a negative movement of 26.7% points for this question in April.

Since December, this question has had a negative movement of 40.3% points – the largest decline of any question.

Business views on the Australian economy’s performance over the long-term are now at record lows.

Now 73.4% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years – up 7% points on a month ago.

Only 18.7% points expect ‘good times’ – down 8.5% points – and a record low for this question.

Clearly businesses are concerned about the current economy situation facing Australia with Treasurer Jim Chalmers set to deliver an important Federal Budget next week.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,000 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

And finally today to some more positive news, Roy Morgan’s Annual Customer Satisfaction Awards were awarded at a gala ceremony last week.

These awards bring together more than 400 of Australia’s most well-known companies to reward 37 that deliver continuously on their social contract with every customer.

Some of the more noteworthy winners include NAB, Bunnings, Chemist Warehouse, Grill’d, Subway, Rebel Sport, Myer, JB Hi-Fi, The Reject Shop, Aussie Broadband, Red Energy, Subaru, Coles Mobile, and Singapore Airlines.

And for the first time Car Manufacturer Volvo not only won its individual category as the Car Manufacturer of the Year but also carried out the overall ‘Best of the Best’ Award for the company or brand delivering the highest level of customer satisfaction of any during 2025.

Congratulations to Volvo and all 37 winners and be sure to visit the Roy Morgan website to learn more about the companies and brands delivering market leading customer satisfaction to Australians.