Roy Morgan Update November 10, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

If a Federal Election were held today the result would be ‘too close to call’.

On primary vote Labor on 25.5% is still narrowly ahead of One Nation on 24.5% and the L-NP on 22%: 19% Liberal and 3% National.

The Greens are on 15%; Independents and Other Parties attract 13% of the vote.

Special analysis of Federal voting intention by States shows the ALP is strongest in Western Australia (29%), New South Wales (28%), and South Australia (27.5%).

One Nation performs best in Queensland with 35% support – almost double both the ALP (20%), and LNP (20%).

The L-NP has the highest support in only one State – but importantly it is Victoria at 27.5% clearly ahead of the ALP (23.5%) and One Nation (19%). Victorians head to a State Election over the next few weeks with the L-NP favoured to return to Government after a 12-year absence.

These results are according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last fortnight with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,574 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis for the full fortnight the ALP leads the L-NP: 51% to 49%.

In the first week of interviewing the two-party preferred lead was: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% - a gap of 3% points.

In the second week of interviewing – and after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates to an 18-year high of 4.85%, this has narrowed to a ‘toss-up’: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

On a two-party preferred basis with One Nation the ALP is further ahead: ALP 54% to One Nation 46%.

An increasingly large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 65.5% (up 2.5%). Only 20.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (down 1.5%).

A majority in every state believes the country is going in the wrong direction. This is highest in Western Australia at 70% and lowest in Tasmania (61%).

Australia’s key weekly indicators have mixed results after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.1pts to 63.1 – the lowest since early April and the third lowest rating of all time.

Confidence fell most strongly among People Paying Off A Mortgage – down 7.2 points to 54.5 – a record low for this group. Confidence was also down for Renters – down 4 points to 67, and for Home Owners, down 1.1 points to 66.3.

There was better news with Inflation Expectations which responded to high interest rates by falling for a second straight week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were down 0.2% to 5.9% - the lowest for over a month.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.9% in each of the next two years.

Now to business. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

In October Australian Business Confidence jumped 5.2 points to 81.7 – its biggest monthly increase this year – but remember it’s still in negative territory – below the baseline 100.

This positive movement came despite the Reserve Bank raising interest rates at the end of September, but before the widely expected increase last week – rates rising by 0.5% in five weeks.

Driving the increase was businesses having more confidence about the next 12 months and the Australian economy’s performance going forward.

More businesses, 35% now expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while only 32.1% expect to be ‘worse off’.

Only one industry has Business Confidence above 100 – Education & Training (100.9).

Another two industries have confidence above 90 – Arts & Recreational Services (95.0) and Public Administration & Safety (90.5) – all three of which are heavily Government supported.

There are several industries with very low Business Confidence Agriculture on 63.7, Wholesale Trade on just 58.3, and the Mining industry remains at the bottom on only 49.1.

New data from Roy Morgan on shopping behaviour shows ‘new age’ online marketplaces continue to grow while traditional online marketplaces have experienced declines in customers and frequency of shopping.

Amazon had 9.5 million Australians shoppers in the 12 months to June 2026 (up 728,000 year-on-year); Temu had 5.1 million (up 371,000) and Shein had 3 million (up 433,000).

In contrast, ‘legacy’ online marketplace platforms like eBay and Kogan are losing shoppers: eBay had 5.9 million shoppers (down 389,000); Kogan.com had 1.2 million shoppers (down 58,000).

These changes are clearly illustrated in a year-on-year comparison of shopper incidence showing increases for Amazon, Temu and Shein, but falls for eBay and Kogan.com.

And finally to results from Roy Morgan’s annual Agribusiness survey of 1,110 Australian farmers during July/August 2026 which shows almost half of Australian farmers (48%) name inflation and input costs as their biggest farming challenge, up a sharp 18 percentage points from a year ago.

The 48% figure for inflation and input costs is the highest figure any challenge has recorded in the survey’s five-year history.

The second biggest challenge for farmers is weather, mentioned by 24% of farmers, followed by Economic uncertainty and government policy in equal third place at 21% each.

Other significant challenges include fuel costs and supply (18%), staffing issues (12%), and fertiliser costs and supply (8%).