Roy Morgan Update November 11, 2025: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Last week ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1 point to 83.5 – this was a second straight weekly drop.

The decline in Consumer Confidence came in the same week the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.6% – a widely expected decision after the ABS released a high inflation number.

Driving the fall was less optimism about the performance of the Australian economy over the longer-term with only 10% (down 2%) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years.

There was also a drop in those saying now is a ‘good time to buy major household items’ – down 1% to 20%, while 37% (up 2%) now say it’s a ‘bad time to buy’ – a net negative swing of 3%.

This is definitely a concern heading into the Christmas retailing season and with the Black Friday sales just around the corner.

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were unchanged this week at 5.2%.

So, Australians are now expecting annual inflation of 5.2% each year over the next two years.

Now to Roy Morgan measures of employment and unemployment – the measure that really matters – and the news is mixed in October.

‘Real Unemployment’ dropped in October, down 0.5% to 10.3%, - so, an estimated 1.64 million Australians are unemployed – looking for work.

Unfortunately, the drop in unemployment was due to fewer people looking for work – both full-time and part-time, rather than an increase in jobs.

There were fewer people in the workforce in October as both unemployment – AND employment – declined.

This monthly result is in line with longer-term trends over the last year.

In October, the news for under-employment was not good – the number of people wanting to work more hours increased significantly to 1.65 million.

Total unemployment and under-employment – what we might call workforce under-utilisation – increased 0.6% to 20.7% of the workforce in October – an estimated 3.28 million people.

The estimates for October continue a long-run of high figures with over 3 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed – for an 11^th straight month since late 2024.

A comparison of the Australian employment situation to a year ago shows the market is shifting rapidly – with an increasing proportion of part-time jobs at the expense of full-time jobs.

Full-time employment is down 511,000 from a year ago, but part-time employment is up 484,000 over the same period.

This is a net loss in overall employment of 27,000 showing the employment market has stalled this year and with lower quality jobs replacing full-time positions.

Now to business.

Australia’s businesses are more confident than consumers. Australian Business Confidence for the month of October was unchanged at 101.7 – just above the neutral level of 100.

Business Confidence was unchanged in October despite the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates unchanged at the end of September.

We will have to wait to see whether last week’s decision by the Reserve Bank influences Business Confidence in November.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.