Roy Morgan Update November 4, 2026: Victorian State Election, NZ Voting Intention and Consumer Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Victorian State Election, NZ Voting Intention and Consumer Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

In Victoria, the L-NP Coalition looks on track to win this month’s Victorian Election. A Coalition win would be only their second this century.

Support for the L-NP has surged over the last few months according to a special Roy Morgan State-wide SMS Poll of 3,610 Victorian electors conducted last week.

Primary support for the Coalition was 29%, up 3.5% from early October. And clearly ahead of the ALP on 22.5%, unchanged on early October, but down 3.5% since early August.

Support for One Nation softened in October, down 3% to 22%, just behind Labor. There was a brief surge in support for the party after its campaign launch in early October, but over the following three weeks support has fallen back.

Support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 12.5%, while 13.5%, up 1%, support Independents and Other Parties.

Importantly, on a two-party preferred basis, the L-NP Coalition is now on 56%, up 1% from early October, and up a large 5% since early August, well ahead of the ALP on 44%.

This represents a massive swing of 11% on a two-party preferred basis since the 2022 Victorian Election.

A swing of this magnitude, if the swing is relatively consistent across the state, would have the Coalition on the verge of securing a majority of seats in Parliament.

However, it’s complicated. Given the complicated nature of the contest throughout Victoria, a Coalition majority can’t be guaranteed.

As Roy Morgan has shown consistently, support for One Nation is strong in outer suburban Melbourne as well as rural and regional Victoria, and One Nation is set to win several seats in these regions potentially giving them the Balance of Power.

A recent Roy Morgan SMS Poll in Eastern Victoria showed One Nation as favourites to pick up three seats – including a National-held seat. If this happens, One Nation would likely prevent a Coalition Majority Government and force the Liberals and Nationals into minority status if they wanted to govern.

Since this most recent Victorian Poll was taken there has been the horrific bashing of a One Nation volunteer in Torquay.

It’s hard to quantify the political impact of the violence directed at the One Nation volunteer, but one result could be to drive One Nation supporters ‘underground’ – and into anonymity.

So accurately measuring One Nation support in the final weeks of the campaign is only going to get harder get harder, and it becomes more likely One Nation support in key seats around Victoria is under-stated – potentially leading to surprises on election night.

We already know the flow of preferences is going to be key to determining the results in many seats. And the order, or ranking, of primary votes, and therefore preference flows, is hard to predict.

In many electorates, the party finishing third is crucial to determining which of the top two parties go on to win the seat. And this will decide whether the Coalition wins a majority of 45 seats or falls short and requires confidence and supply from another party – most likely One Nation.

Turning to New Zealand, which faces a national election this week between current Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (National) and former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins (Labour).

The final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll couldn’t be much closer – neither side currently in Parliament is expected to win a majority of seats.

The National-led Government of National (26.5%), ACT (11%), and New Zealand First (10%), has 47.5% support in October – which equates to an estimated 57 seats.

In comparison the Labour-led Opposition of Labour (27.5%), the Greens (15.5%), and the Maori Party (1%), has 44% support – equating to an estimated 55 seats.

In a Parliament expected to comprise 122 or 123 seats – this means 62 seats are needed for a majority.

And it’s here the centrist Opportunity Party – which says it can work with either National or Labour – is set to play a key role.

Support for Opportunity strengthened in October, up 1.5% to 8%. And this level of support at the ballot would hand the party its first representation in Parliament with 10 seats and the ‘Balance of Power’.

On these results, Opportunity could potentially enter coalition government with Labour and the Greens for a forecast 62 seats – and an ultra slim Parliamentary majority.

Alternatively, Opportunity could choose to support a continuation of the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition in a complicated four-party arrangement with as many as 67 seats.

Either way, it appears New Zealand is set for a period of instability as the parties jockey for position in a crowded Parliament.

A large problem for the National Government in the closing weeks of the campaign has been the declining confidence of New Zealanders.

An increasing majority of New Zealanders say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 55% (up 4.5%). Only 37.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ – 17.5% points into negative territory.

This equates to a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of only 82.5 – 17.5% points below neutral.

In addition, consumer confidence in NZ, ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence, has dropped for three straight months – down 3.1 points from July to just 96.2 in October.

The index has not been in positive territory since February.

And finally rounding up  Australia’s key weekly indicators – interviewing before the Reserve Bank raised interest rates this week, shows consumers were already anticipating the move.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.7pts to 66.2 – its lowest since late May.

Confidence fell amongst both Home Owners and People Paying Off A Mortgage this week and is set to fall further after interest rates increased to an 18-year high.

There was better news with Inflation Expectations – which fell this week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were down 0.2% to 6.1% - the first fall after four weeks of increases.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.1% in each of the next two years.