Roy Morgan Update October 20, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Firstly today, last night’s targeted attack on Independent MP Helen Haines has shocked the nation, and on a human level, we extend our sympathies, and hopes for a speedy recovery to Helen, her family and friends, and colleagues.

The political implications of an incident of this kind are often an increase in support for the Government ( party in power) as people look for leadership.

However, the Bondi terrorist attack last December did not see any increase in support for the Albanese Government, instead, support for One Nation, known for its strong anti-immigration stance, increased significantly and has remained high ever since.

Roy Morgan data Next week will give us the first indications of the nation’s political response to this attack.

In the Roy Morgan’s weekly indicators, there was little change in consumer confidence. With ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down only 0.3pts to 67.7.

There was a small improvement for buying sentiment, but this was offset by increasing worries about the economy.

Of concern, Australians once again expect higher inflation: ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased for a third straight week, up 0.1% to 6.2%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.2% in each of the next two years.

In September Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 2.6 points to 76.5, just above the record low in July.

Business Confidence has now spent an unprecedented six straight months below 80 – representing much more pessimism among businesses than optimism.

Highlighting this pessimism, a new record high 76% of businesses expect ‘bad times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years. Only 18% expect ‘good times’.

At a State level, Business Confidence plunged 20 points in Victoria, to 72.4 in September. The big plunge came after a brief spike in August following the resignation of unpopular former Premier Jacinta Allan.

New Premier Ben Carroll’s honeymoon with the business community has proved short-lived, with all the initial gains more than wiped out only a month later.

Business Confidence is low in all States and especially mining heavy Western Australia (70.9) and South Australia (65.1) – both down over 35 points from a year ago.

The Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Only three industries have Business Confidence above 100 – Public Administration & Safety (103.6), Education & Training (102.7) and Arts & Recreational Services (102.5) – all heavily Government supported.

All other industries had Business Confidence in negative territory below 100. Importantly, the lowest Business Confidence was for the Mining industry on only 48.3.

A year ago, confidence in the Mining Industry was higher than any other, but increasing prices for energy, uncertainty about global and Chinese demand, weak productivity and workforce constraints, the increasing amount of red tape, and general economic uncertainty have seen confidence in the industry plunge.

The Victorian election looks too close to call, as we reported last week and now we look at the race to secure a majority of seats in Victoria’s Upper House – which is evenly poised.

The L-NP Coalition / One Nation is set to secure 18 seats, level with the ALP/Greens (18 seats), and the remaining four seats are undecided based on a special Roy Morgan survey conducted from July – September 2026 with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,845 electors and an average of 360 electors in each of Victoria’s eight Upper House regions.

This is a closer result than an earlier SMS Roy Morgan Poll which showed the L-NP Coalition and One Nation securing a majority of 21 seats in Victoria’s Upper House. The changed result is because in recent months more Victorian voters support the Greens.

And now data showing how many Australians at the end of this month will celebrate Halloween.

In research conducted in collaboration with the Australian Retail Council we find that around 4.4 million Australians plan to celebrate Halloween – down about 400,000 on a year ago as cost-of-living concerns continue to bite.

On average, those Australians celebrating Halloween plan to spend $117 each for a total boost of $510 million to retailers.

The most popular way Australians plan to celebrate Halloween is by purchasing treats for ‘trick or treaters’ – planned by 45% of those celebrating Halloween.

Other popular Halloween activities include 44% dressing up in a Halloween costume, 35% decorating their home and 27% attending (or hosting) a Halloween party.

Under 35s comprise the largest group set to celebrate Halloween with 1.5 million people of them looking forward to the end of the month – little changed on a year ago.