Roy Morgan Update October 27, 2026: Victorian State Election, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Victorian State Election, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

And first today, a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 283 electors in some key seats in Eastern Victoria – Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham.

These four seats will be highly contested at next month’s Victorian Election. Three are currently held by the ALP Government, and one, Morwell, is held by the Nationals.

This poll shows all four are set to change hands in November, and the ALP will lose all three it currently has.

A key question asked of Electors in these seats was ‘Which party will you NEVER vote for” – 44% would never vote for the ALP, ahead of One Nation on 41%, and the Greens on 37%.

However, only 12% would NEVER vote for the L-NP Coalition – which will prove crucial in seats which come down to preferences.

Looking at the seats, the Liberal Party are in the box seat to win the seat of Bass, but importantly, One Nation are in prime position to win the seats of Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham.

In these three electorates One Nation is attracting an average of 39% primary support, well ahead of the Coalition (24%), ALP (20%), and the Greens (8%). 9% support other parties and Independents.

The contest between the parties in outer suburban and regional areas – in which One Nation is performing strongly – will be key to determining the result of next month’s Victorian Election and whether there will be a Majority or Minority Government.

The flow of preferences in these electorates will be key to determining which parties will win these seats, as we saw at the Melbourne City Council Election two years ago.

In many electorates, the party finishing third is crucial to determining which of the top two parties go on to win the seat and will decide whether Victoria has a Majority Government or a Minority Government after next month’s Election.

The strong performance of One Nation in key regional seats like Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham suggests the party can win many seats in regional and rural areas even if their state-wide primary vote falls below that of the Coalition and ALP.

Importantly for the parties campaigning, the concerns of people in these electorates are dominated by five key factors:

1: Cost of living (25%), 2: Government debt, spending and corruption concerns (23%), 3: Crime and public safety (20%), 4: Roads & infrastructure (12%) and 5: Housing affordability (7%).

Looking nationally.

If a Federal Election were held today, the Albanese Labor government would be re-elected against either One Nation or the Coalition.

Labor’s primary vote is 26%, ahead of the L-NP on 23.5% - 21% Liberal and 2.5% Nationals, and ahead of One Nation on 22.5%.

Importantly, this is the first time since mid-July the L-NP has been ahead of One Nation.

The Greens are on 15.5%; Independents and Other Parties attract 12.5% of the vote.

Interviewing over the last fortnight surrounds the attack on Independent MP Helen Haines and there may be early signs of a political impact. Primary support for the ALP (-1%) and One Nation (-1.5%) was slightly lower in the week following the attack, and primary support for the L-NP Coalition (+1%) was slightly higher.

However, these movements are small and statistically speaking within the ‘margin of error’, so it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the political impact of the attack, but there are potential warning signs for the Albanese Government and One Nation in these results.

Special analysis of federal voting intention by States shows the ALP leading in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia.

The only exception is Queensland – One Nation has the highest primary vote at 28.5%.

The battle between One Nation and the L-NP Coalition is close.

The two parties are even in New South Wales, One Nation leads in Queensland, and Western Australia, and the L-NP leads in Victoria, and South Australia.

The Federal L-NP lead over One Nation in Victoria is important with the State facing an election in a month’s time.

These results are according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last fortnight with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 2,711 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is ahead of the L-NP Coalition 52.5% to 47.5% and even further ahead of One Nation 55% to 45%.

Why we can expect Labor to be more economically conservative – at least for a while – it’s all about preferences.

The ALP can afford to move slightly towards the centre-right because some progressive voters who are unhappy with Labor will vote Green and then preference Labor. If Labor moves too far left, however, it risks losing centrist and conservative voters to the Coalition or One Nation, and those votes are much less likely to return through preferences.

The Coalition faces a tougher challenge. If it moves right, it can lose moderate voters to Labor or independents, and many of those votes may not come back. If it moves left, it risks losing conservative voters to One Nation, and only around two-thirds of those preferences flow back to the Coalition. As a result, the Coalition has less room to shift its position than Labor.

A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 63% (up 0.5%). Only 22% (down 2.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

Analysis by state shows a majority in all states believe the country is going in the wrong direction. This is lowest in South Australia (55%) and highest in Queensland, where 71% believe this, and where One Nation’s vote is highest.

This week saw little change in consumer confidence. With ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.2pts to 67.9.

The indicator has now spent four straight weeks below the mark of 70 – near all-time record lows.

Of concern, Australians once again expect higher inflation: ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased for a fourth straight week, up 0.1% to 6.3%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.3% in each of the next two years.

High inflation, and rising interest rates, are causing pain for many Australians – and the latest Roy Morgan data shows mortgage stress remains at a high level in September, although increases to household incomes in recent months have slightly moderated the level of mortgage stress.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates of mortgage stress for September show 31.8% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.75 million Australians – a fourth straight month above 30% of mortgage holders.

This is up more than half a million so far this year (566,000) as the combination of increasing interest rates, and pressure on labour markets has had a negative impact on household incomes.

While the pause in interest rate increases mid-year was helpful the RBA’s decision to increase rates at the end of September is set to lead to renewed increases in mortgage stress.

Roy Morgan forecasts that if the Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25% next week to 4.85%, mortgage stress will rise to an estimated 1.82 million mortgage holders in November – up 71,000 from now.