Roy Morgan Update September 1, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and New Zealand Vote

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and New Zealand Vote.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The weekend’s One Nation victory in the Secret Harbour by-election which came as a surprise to many, was almost a foregone conclusion – Roy Morgan data showed Secret Harbour electors were ranked among the most likely to feel they ‘get a raw deal in life’ and ‘the core values of our society are under threat’.

These people are part of the more than one million disaffected Australians Roy Morgan has been tracking for more than 2 years.

Roy Morgan’s subscriber only nationwide monthly research showed One Nation’s extraordinary rise in Secret Harbour from 10% in October 2025 to 19% by January, 26% by April, 36% by July, and 40% in August.

Apart from losing the Secret Harbour by-election to One Nation, last week was a good one for the Labor in Federal politics.

ALP primary support is up 2.5% to 29.5%, ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 3.5%), and the L-NP Coalition 20.5% - Liberals 18% (down 0.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), Greens, down 0.5% to 13.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 2% to 13% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 24-30, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,585 electors.

Federally, One Nation support dropped after their MP David Farley said in an ABC Insiders interview that as well as ‘Net Overseas Migration’ of 130,000, One Nation would support a ‘rotating workforce’ of up to 100,000 – an effective migration rate of 230,000.

Farley then conceded the figure was ‘not too different’ to Labor’s stated aim of reducing ‘Net Overseas Migration’ to 225,000 for the 2027-28 financial year. Since then, One Nation has been in damage control Federally on their migration policies.

Next week’s Roy Morgan Poll will measure the impact of One Nation’s by-election victory, Prime Minister Albanese’s attack on Pauline Hanson (Albanese described Pauline Hanson as ‘seeking to divide Australians’), and Hanson’s response that the Prime Minister was ‘inciting violence’ and ‘acting like an Emperor’. The likely result is a movement in support back to One Nation.

The ALP has strengthened its standing on a two-party preferred basis this week against both One Nation and the Coalition.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation (55.5-44.5) or the L-NP Coalition (56-44).

A clear majority of Australians, 59%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 0.5%). Only 28% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 1%).

This view is shared by both genders with 60% of men and 58% of women saying Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by voting intention shows large differences between supporters of different parties with a majority of supporters of One Nation (92%), the Coalition (72%), Other Parties (69%), Independents (56%), and the Greens (53%) saying the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Only 26% of ALP supporters say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ – 57% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

It was not a good week for Consumer Confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.6 points to 74.9.

Driving the decrease was growing concern about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year after the ABS announced a higher-than-expected official inflation figure for July of 3.5% - and up 0.6% for the month – more than double the preferred monthly rate of 0.2-0.3%.

The high official inflation figure led to significant media speculation that the Reserve Bank would need to raise interest rates again – perhaps as soon as later this month.

The Bank meets next at the end of September.

The renewed spike for official inflation is no surprise – Inflation Expectations have increased significantly since late June.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 6.1% in late August, but this is up 0.7% points since the end of June.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.1% in each of the next two years.

The high inflation, and rising interest rates, is causing pain for many Australians – and the latest Roy Morgan data shows Mortgage stress was up again in July.

Mortgage stress has increased for six straight months since the Reserve Bank started raising interest rates.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates of mortgage stress for July show an increase of 2.2% - now 32.5% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.79 million Australians – 180,000 more than June.

The rising mortgage stress is due to a combination of the increasing interest rates, pressure on labour markets – Roy Morgan’s July labour market report shows overall employment, and importantly full-time employment, are both down from the highs reached earlier in the year and are having a negative impact on household incomes which have softened since earlier in the year.

Mortgage stress is now at its highest since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

Roy Morgan forecasts that if the Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25% in September to 4.6%, mortgage stress will rise to an estimated 1.82 million mortgage holders – up 32,000 from now.

Finally, the political situation in New Zealand where there’s an election in just over two months.

Support for the National-led Government is 49% well ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 41%, but still short of a majority, and 10% supporting a party outside Parliament.

This support is largely for the centrist Opportunity Party with a record high 9.5% support – up 1.5% on a month ago – and clearly in a position to determine who the next Government is.

At this level of support Opportunity would be set to win as many as 11 seats in Parliament.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is made up of National on 31% (down 1%), ACT on 10.5% (up 2%), and NZ First on 7.5% (down 2%).

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition includes Labour on 24% (down 1.5%), Greens on 15.5% (up 2%) and the Maori Party virtually unchanged on 1.5%.

The survey results for August if played out at the election would likely see the National-led Government winning 59 seats, Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition winning 50 seats.

The Opportunity Party would likely win 11 seats and hold the ‘Balance of Power’ in the New Zealand Parliament.