Roy Morgan Update September 8, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update. Before we begin

If you’re in Melbourne this week, you’ll have noticed an influx of Americans for the NFL season opener between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams.

Roy Morgan’s latest data on sporting viewership shows why the Americans are here - with almost 1.2 million Australians watching American Football regularly or occasionally, and almost 4.5 million willing to watch if someone else in the household is watching – almost 20% of Australians.

In addition, around 400,000 Australians bet on American Football.

Now to business. In August Australian Business Confidence was 79.1, just above the all-time record low in July.

At a State level, Business Confidence jumped in Victoria, up 16.7 points to 92.4, and there was a smaller increase in Queensland, but the measure was down in the other States.

Victoria’s result appears directly linked to the resignation of former Premier Jacinta Allan in late July – of course that means this boost may be temporary if new Premier Ben Carroll can’t build on this initial boost as the State gets set to vote in an election in November.

The Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Now to our Roy Morgan weekly indicators.

Following One Nation’s victory in the Secret Harbour by-election a week ago, support for One Nation has increased 3% to 26.5%, but is still just behind the ALP, on 27% (down 2.5%). The L-NP Coalition was up 1% to 21.5% - made up of Liberals 17% (down 1%) and Nationals 4.5% (up 2%). Greens were up 1% to 14.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties were down 2.5% to 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 31 – September 6, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,541 electors.

The swing to One Nation, or away from Labor, has tightened the two-party preferred picture, but the ALP retains the edge.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation (53.5-46.5) or the L-NP Coalition (53-47).

An increasing majority of Australians, 62%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 3%). Only 24% now say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (that’s down 4%).

And it was not a good week for Consumer Confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3 points to 71.9 – so Consumer Confidence is now down 5.6 points in two weeks.

This is the biggest two-week fall for Consumer Confidence since March early this year – at the beginning of the Iran War. The decrease was driven by falling confidence about personal finances - after the ABS announced a higher-than-expected official inflation figure for July.

The renewed spike for official inflation is no surprise – Inflation Expectations have increased significantly since late June.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were up 0.2% to 6.3% - the highest since mid-May, up 0.9% points since the end of June.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.3% in each of the next two years.

Turning to the latest Roy Morgan readership results for New Zealand. An estimated 2.52 million New Zealanders (57.4%) read or access newspapers in an average 7-day period via print or online (website or app) platforms.

In addition, an estimated 1.65 million (37.6%) read magazines whether in print or online either via the web or an app.

The most popular newspapers are the New Zealand Herald with a total cross-platform audience of over 1.74 million, well ahead of The Post on 395,000, The Press on 279,000, Otago Daily Times on 264,000, and the Waikato Times on 196,000.

When it comes to magazines, motoring magazine AA Directions is clearly the most widely read attracting a total cross-platform audience of almost half a million – 486,000, ahead of Fish & Game NZ on 205,000, Dish on 188,000, and New Zealand Woman’s Day.

Finally, Roy Morgan’s Annual Trusted Brand Awards were held last Thursday. The Trusted Brand Awards recognised 22 winning brands across a range of industries for their high levels of trust.

19 of this year’s winners built on their win a year ago to go back-to-back as the most Trusted Brands in their respective categories.

Notable winners included Aldi, Kmart, Apple, Toyota, Commonwealth Bank, Bunnings, Australia Post, NRMA and Samsung – all among Australia’s Top 20 Most Trusted Brands.

And overall – for a third straight year – Bunnings has been awarded as ‘Best of the Best’ – today Bunnings is Australia’s Most Trusted Brand.

For more detail on the topics covered in this video – including the winners of all categories in the Annual Trusted Brand awards – head to the Roy Morgan website.