ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are at 4.8% in late October – down 0.1% points from the month of September
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% for the week of October 20-26, 2025, down 0.1% points from the full month of September.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for September 2025 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – down 0.1% points from the prior month of August.
Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% - 5.2% since the start of September 2024 and averaged 4.8%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 4,900 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – Sept. 2025).
Average retail petrol prices dropped to $1.81 per litre in September, the highest since March 2025
During September, average retail petrol prices increased by three cents per litre to $1.81 per litre – the highest average retail petrol prices for six months since March 2025.
Average retail petrol prices started the month of September at $1.76 per litre and increased throughout the month to a monthly high of $1.85 per litre in late September. The good news is that after peaking in late September, average retail petrol prices have dropped back down during October.
Average retail petrol prices hit near three-year lows in May but then rebounded in June and July. This volatility is reflected in the weekly Inflation Expectations of Australians which have moved in a band of 0.5% between 4.7-5.2% during the last six months from May - October. On a weekly level, Inflation Expectations have increased 12 times, decreased 11 times, and been unchanged three times.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now been at, or above, $1.70 per litre for a record 162 straight weeks, equivalent to over three years uninterrupted, since mid-September 2022.
Looking back average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.85 per litre since late January 2024, but this has dropped to an average of $1.78 per litre since mid-May 2025 over the last 25 weeks. The reduction in petrol prices this year has clearly lessened inflation pressures and was no doubt a key factor for the Reserve Bank behind its decision to cut interest rates in February, May and early August.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2025
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
The latest official ABS monthly annual CPI estimate at 3.0% for the year to August 2025 is within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have now been within the preferred target range for twelve months since August 2024.
The drop in official estimates of inflation led to the first cut in official interest rates for over four years by the Reserve Bank in mid-February by +0.25% to 4.1% and this was followed up in late May with another cut by +0.25% to 3.85% and again in early August by +0.25% to 3.6%.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for September 2025 is due to be released this week on Wednesday.
Inflation Expectations were highest in Western Australia and Queensland at 5% plus
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for September shows mixed results with decreases in Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia, were unchanged in Victoria, but were up in Tasmania.
Despite decreasing in September, Inflation Expectations were highest in Western Australia at 5.1%, down 0.1% points from a month ago and Queensland at 5.0%, down 0.3% points from a month ago.
Inflation Expectations are in line with the national average in New South Wales at 4.9%, down 0.2% points from a month ago, and Tasmania at 4.9%, up 0.2% points from a month ago.
In Victoria, Inflation Expectations were unchanged at 4.8% in September and were down 0.1% points to 4.6% in South Australia, and now clearly the lowest Inflation Expectations of any State.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas dropped slightly by 0.1% points to 5.2% in September and were also down in Capital Cities, by 0.2% points to 4.7%, reversing the previous month’s increase in August.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were at 4.8% in late October, down 0.1% points from the September estimate of 4.9%:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia are down so far in October and are now at 4.8%, down 0.1% points from the full month of September (4.9%). Inflation Expectations in the month of September were down 0.1% points from a seven-month high in August (5.0%).
“However, although Inflation Expectations have now dropped in late October, the indications so far this month are that Inflation Expectations for October will have increased throughout the entire month and be in line with the six-month high in August at 5% – or even higher.
“The good news for Australians is that the official ABS inflation estimates have continued within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle – at 3% for the year to August 2025. Inflation Expectations have now been within the target range for thirteen straight months since August 2024 averaging 2.4% during this period.
“The sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the broader economy during which official annual inflation fell from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024 – a fall of 1.7% points – led to the Reserve Bank cutting official interest rates in February, May and early August by a total of 0.75% to 3.6%.
“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, in recent weeks and months shows just how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from October 2015 – September 2025 and includes interviews with 4,097 Australians aged 14+ in September 2025.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
