ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.7pts to 66.2 in early November before the Reserve Bank meeting
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.7pts to only 66.2 in early November, only days before the Reserve Bank meeting on Melbourne Cup Day. The Reserve Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates at this meeting. This is the lowest Consumer Confidence since late May and the indicator is a large 18.3pts lower than a year ago, October 27 – November 2, 2025 (84.5), and 5.6pts below the 2026 weekly average of 71.8.
An analysis by State shows confidence decreasing in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and South Australia, but slightly increasing in Victoria – reversing the results of a week ago.
The small drop in Consumer Confidence this week was driven by decreases in confidence about personal finances both compared to a year ago and over the next 12 months.
Only around one-in-seven, 14% (down 2ppts), of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 56% (up 4ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year deteriorated slightly this week with just under one-in-five, 19% (unchanged) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 44% (up 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year was little changed this week with only 5% (unchanged) of Australians, expecting ‘good times’ compared to 48% (up ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Australians’ views about the economy’s performance over the longer-term of the next five years was virtually unchanged this week with 7% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to almost a third, 32% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions were unchanged this week with just 14% (unchanged) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to an increasing plurality of 48% (unchanged) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.7pts to 66.2pts last week, its lowest level since late May, led by weaker confidence in personal finances. On a four-week moving average basis, the inflation expectations figure remains at its highest level since late May. This follows last week’s Q3 CPI print, which showed annual trimmed mean (underlying) inflation was slightly stronger than expected at 3.7% y/y.
“Consumer confidence remains well below its long-run average ahead of today’s RBA meeting. We expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25bp and see some risk that the cash rate reaches 5.10% in December or February. Elevated inflation and the higher interest rate environment are likely to weigh on household spending, particularly as economic activity remains soft and if the unemployment rate trends higher.”
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
