New South Wales State Voting Intention: One Nation (30%) now ahead of ALP (25%) and L-NP Coalition (19%) on primary vote one year before New South Wales State Election

One year before a State Election, New South Wales electors are split with One Nation (30%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (19%). In addition, 12.5% support the Greens and a further 13.5% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 16-19, 2026, with a representative New South Wales-wide cross-section of 2,108 electors.

If a New South Wales State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with much uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of next year’s New South Wales State Election.

Large gender split on voting intentions, but little difference by age

Analysis of the voting results shows a large gender split between men and women.

Among men, primary support for One Nation is at 34% and the L-NP Coalition at 20.5% compared to the ALP at only 22.5% and the Greens on just 10%. This leads to a three-party preferred result of One Nation (38%), ALP (38%), and the L-NP Coalition well behind at only 24%.

Among men, One Nation (53.5%) are clearly preferred to the ALP (46.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, and the L-NP (51%) cf. ALP (49%) is narrowly preferred.

There is a different picture for women with primary support for the ALP (27.5%) just ahead of One Nation (26.5%), and the L-NP Coalition (17%) just ahead of the Greens (14.5%). On a three-party preferred basis the ALP (50%) is almost double One Nation (29.5%), and more than double the L-NP Coalition (20.5%).

Among women, the ALP (58.5%) are clearly preferred to One Nation (41.5%) on a two-party preferred basis, and there is an almost identical result against the Coalition: ALP (58%) cf. L-NP (42%).

Analysis by age shows primary support is consistent across all four age groups with support for One Nation between 28.5% to 32%, support for the ALP between 24% to 26%, support for the L-NP Coalition between 17% to 20%, and support for the Greens between 9.5% to 14.5%.

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP well ahead of One Nation and L-NP Coalition

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 44%, well ahead of One Nation on 33.5% and the L-NP Coalition on 22.5%.

Two-Party Preferred results show ALP with leading both One Nation and the L-NP Coalition

Roy Morgan has analysed three different two-party preferred results between the ALP and One Nation, ALP and L-NP Coalition, and the L-NP Coalition and One Nation.

The ALP is narrowly preferred to the One Nation (52.5% cf. 47.5%) on a two-party preferred basis and is an even larger lead over the L-NP Coalition: (ALP 54% cf. L-NP Coalition 46%).

The closest result is between the L-NP Coalition and One Nation with the L-NP Coalition just ahead of One Nation (50.5% cf. 49.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

Premier Chris Minns is clearly viewed as a ‘Better Premier’ than Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane

Electors were asked: "Thinking of Premier Chris Minns and Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane. In your opinion, who would make the better New South Wales Premier?"

A clear majority of 60.5% of electors selected Premier Chris Minns as the ’Better Premier’ compared to 31.5% for Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, while 8% couldn’t say or nominated someone else.

A look at the demographic results shows Premier Chris Minns leading amongst both genders, all four key age groups, in both Sydney and Country New South Wales, and amongst ALP supporters, Greens supporters, One Nation supporters, and supporters of Independent and Other Parties.

Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane is only regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ by L-NP Coalition supporters.

A majority of New South Wales electors approve of Premier Chris Minn’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Chris Minns is handling his job as Premier of New South Wales?"

A majority of 56% of electors approve of the way Mr. Chris Minns is handling his job as Premier of New South Wales compared to 41%, that disapprove, while 3% can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Mr. Minns is doing as Premier of New South Wales include a majority of both genders, a majority of all four key age groups, a majority of electors in both Sydney and Country New South Wales, and a large majority of ALP supporters and L-NP Coalition supporters.

In contrast, the electors who disapprove of the job Mr. Minns is doing as Premier of New South Wales include a large majority of Greens supporters, and supporters of Independents and Other Parties.

A plurality of New South Wales electors approve of Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Kellie Sloane is handling her job as Opposition Leader in New South Wales?"

A narrow plurality of 46% of electors approve of the way Ms. Kellie Sloane is handling her job as Opposition Leader in New South Wales compared to 45% that disapprove, while 9% can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Ms. Sloane is doing as Opposition Leader include a plurality of both genders, people aged 35-49 and 65+, a plurality of ALP supporters, and a large majority of L-NP supporters.

In contrast, the electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Sloane is doing as Opposition Leader in New South Wales include a majority of Greens supporters, supporters of Independents and Other Parties, and a plurality of people aged 18-34 and 50-64, people in Country New South Wales, and One Nation supporters.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from February 16-19, 2026, with a representative New South Wales-wide cross-section of 2,108 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.