One Nation gain primary support at the expense of ALP and L-NP Coalition

In the last week the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP virtually unchanged at 30.5% (down 0.5% points from a week ago), ahead of the L-NP Coalition 23.5% (down 0.5% points) and One Nation 22% (up 1.5% points). Support for the Greens was down 1% point to 11.5%, and 12.5% (up 0.5% points) supported Other Parties/Independents according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 23 – March 1, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,554 electors.

The distribution of preferences at the next Federal Election will be more important than ever.

On a two-party preferred basis based on how electors said they would ’vote’ their preferences ALP 56% (up 1.5% points) is well ahead of the L-NP 44% (down 1.5% points).

However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 53.5% (down 0.5% points) leads the L-NP 46.5% (up 0.5% points) – a smaller ALP lead, if a Federal Election were held now. However, the ALP would still be returned to Government with a clear majority.

Over 95% of interviewing for this survey was completed before the US and Israel attack on Iran carried out on Saturday afternoon (AEDT).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in February and March 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: February 2-8, 2026: (n=1,584); February 9-13, 2026: (n=1,216);
February 13-16, 2026: (n=526), February 16-22, 2026: (n=1,649 electors), February 23 – March 1, 2026: (n=1,554).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down 4.5pts to 67.5 – over 30pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 26.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 4.5 points to 67.5 – before the US and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday afternoon (AEDT).

A rising majority of 58% (up 1.5%) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 26.5% (down 3%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,554 Australian electors over the last few days of February 23 – March 1, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.