Federal Voting Intention: ALP loses support as Reserve Bank raises interest rates – on a two-party preferred basis ALP 53.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP Coalition 46.5% (up 2.5%)

In the week of February 2-8, 2026, the Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for the ALP down 2% to 28.5%, One Nation down 0.5% to 24.5%, and the L-NP Coalition up 2% to 22.5% - interviewing for this survey was completed before the Coalition re-united on Sunday afternoon.

Support for the Greens increased 1% to 13.5% and support for Independents/ Other Parties was down 0.5% to 11% according to the latest Roy Morgan survey conducted with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,584 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is 53.5% (down 2.5% from a week ago) ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% (up 2.5%). When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election the two-party preferred result is closer than the respondent allocated preferences with the ALP on 53% (down 1.5%) leading the L-NP Coalition on 47% (up 1.5%).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government easily.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in January and February 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: January 2026: January 5 – February 1, 2026 (n=1,401), Late January 2026: January 19-25, 2026 (n=1,653); Ending February 1, 2026: January 26 – February 1, 2026 (n=5,111); February 2-8, 2026: (n=1,584).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped even lower to 70 – a large 30pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 28% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 3.5 points to 70. A growing majority of 58% (up 1.5%) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 28% (down 2%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,584 Australian electors over the week of February 2-8, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6.5% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.