ALP and L-NP Coalition lose primary support while Greens and One Nation gain support after Middle East conflict starts

In the last week ALP primary support is down 4% to 26.5%, and the L-NP Coalition 22.5% (down 1%) while One Nation 23.5% (up 1.5%), and the Greens 14.5% (up 3%) both increased and 13% (up 0.5% points) supported Other Parties/Independents according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from March 2-8, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,532 electors.

In times of global unrest, the usual response of the electorate is to swing behind the Government – although clearly this hasn’t happened so far in the early stages of this war. The rise in support for the Greens (+3% points) is likely because the Greens are the only major political party to take a stand against the US and Israeli strikes in the Middle East, and this support has come straight from people previously supporting the ALP (-4% points).

A look at the results by gender and age show the picture is complicated. Analysis by gender shows the ALP losing primary support of both men and women and support up for both the Greens and One Nation.

Analysis by age shows the ALP losing support in every age group. Among people aged 18-24 though – ALP support went to One Nation and Independents/Other Parties and the Greens also lost support among people aged 18-24, but gained support in all age groups 25+. One Nation gained support in all age groups under 65.

Roy Morgan Interviewing in February and March 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: February 13-16, 2026: (n=526), February 16-22, 2026: (n=1,649 electors), February 23 – March 1, 2026: (n=1,554), March 2-8, 2026 (n=1,532).

ALP two-party preferred lead cut, but still retains an election-winning lead

The distribution of preferences at the next Federal Election will be more important than ever.

On a two-party preferred basis based on how electors said they would ’vote’ their preferences ALP 54.5% (down 1.5% points) is well ahead of the L-NP 45.5% (up 1.5% points).

However, when preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 53% (down 0.5% points) leads the L-NP 47% (up 0.5% points) – a smaller ALP lead, if a Federal Election were held now. However, the ALP would still be returned to Government with a clear majority.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating unchanged at 67.5 – over 30pts below the neutral level of 100 – only 26.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was unchanged at 67.5 following the US and Israel attacked Iran launched on Saturday February 28.

A majority of 59% of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 26.5% that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,532 Australian electors over the last few days of March 2-8, 2026. Of all electors surveyed last week, 6% (unchanged) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.