Victorian State Voting Intention: ALP (25.5%) holds ground and now leads One Nation (24.5%) and L-NP Coalition (24%) on primary vote in the week before the Nepean by-election

Only seven months before a State Election, Victorian electors continue to remain split four ways with the governing ALP 25.5% (unchanged from February 2026) now just ahead of One Nation 24.5% (down 2% points) and the L-NP Coalition 24% (up 2.5% points) and 26% (up 0.5% points) supporting Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 13.5% (unchanged), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8.5% (down 0.5% points according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.

If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP well ahead of the L-NP Coalition and One Nation

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 44.5% (unchanged from February), well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 28% (up 2% points) and One Nation on 27.5% (down 2% points).

Two-Party Preferred results show ALP with narrow leads over the L-NP Coalition and One Nation

Roy Morgan has analysed three different two-party preferred results between the ALP and the L-NP Coalition, ALP and One Nation, and the L-NP Coalition and One Nation.

The ALP is narrowly preferred to the L-NP Coalition (ALP 51%, down 1% point from February cf. L-NP. 49%, up 1% point) on a two-party preferred basis, and the ALP increased its two-party preferred lead over One Nation: (ALP 53.5%, up 1% point cf. One Nation 46.5%, down 1% point).

The preferences of ALP voters heavily favour the L-NP Coalition over One Nation and this is shown by the results of this poll which gives the L-NP Coalition a significantly larger lead over One Nation on a two-party preferred basis than the ALP has. The two-party preferred result between the L-NP Coalition and One Nation, has L-NP 59% (up 3% points cf. One Nation 41% (down 3% points).

Eastern Victoria Region: One Nation leads on primary support, but the L-NP Coalition leads narrowly on a two-party preferred basis in this region which includes the State seat of Nepean

Roy Morgan is including a special analysis of the voting patterns in the Eastern Victoria Region in which the State seat of Nepean faces a by-election this weekend. The results for the Eastern Victoria Region show primary support for One Nation on 36% ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 28%, the ALP on 19.5%, the Greens on 8.5%, Other Parties on 1.5% and Independents on 6.5%.

On a two-party preferred basis, the L-NP Coalition is on 50.5%, narrowly ahead of One Nation on 49.5% indicating there is set to be a tight contest for the seat of Nepean at this week’s by-election. The ALP is not standing a candidate in this week’s Nepean by-election.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is clearly viewed as a ‘Better Premier’ than incumbent Jacinta Allan

Electors were asked: "Thinking of Premier Jacinta Allan and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson. In your opinion, who would make the better Victorian Premier?"

A majority of 53% (up 2% points from February) of electors selected Opposition Leader Jess Wilson as the ’Better Premier’ compared to 42% (down 0.5% points) for incumbent Premier Jacinta Allan, while 5% (down 1.5% points) couldn’t say or nominated someone else.

A look at the demographic results shows Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leading amongst both men and women, all four key age groups, in both Melbourne and Country Victoria, and amongst Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation supporters.

Premier Jacinta Allan is regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ by ALP supporters, Greens supporters, and supporters of Independents and Other Parties.

Two-thirds of Victorian electors disapprove of Premier Jacinta Allan’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Jacinta Allan is handling her job as Premier of Victoria?"

A large majority of 66.5% (down 1% point from February) of electors disapprove of the way Ms. Jacinta Allan is handling her job as Premier of Victoria compared to under a third, 32.5% (up 2% points), that approve, while 1% (down 1% point) can’t say.

The electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Allan is doing as Premier of Victoria include a majority of both genders and all four key age groups, electors in both Melbourne and Country Victoria, and a majority of supporters of the L-NP Coalition, One Nation, Independents and Other Parties.

In contrast, the electors who approve of the job Ms. Allan is doing as Premier of Victoria include a majority of ALP supporters and Greens supporters.

Victorian electors are evenly split on Opposition Leader Jess Wilson’s performance in the job

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Jess Wilson is handling her job as Opposition Leader in Victoria?"

Electors are split on Liberal Leader Jess Wilson’s performance as Opposition Leader with 48.5% (down 4.5% points) approving of the way Ms. Wilson is handling her job while 48.5% (up 6% points) disapprove, and a further 3% (down 1.5% points) can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader include a plurality of women, a majority of people aged 50-64 and 65+, a majority of electors in Country Victoria, and a majority of L-NP Coalition supporters and One Nation supporters

In contrast, the electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader in Victoria include a plurality of men and people aged 18-34, a majority of people aged 35-49, and a majority of ALP supporters, Greens supporters and supporters of Independents and Other Parties

Voter concerns about a potential Liberal-National Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson

The five key themes to emerge from over 1,000 responses to the question: “What, if anything, would concern you about a Liberal-National Coalition State Government led by Jess Wilson?” are a lack of clarity and vision for Victoria from the Coalition (mentioned by 45% of respondents), the inexperience of Liberal Leader Jess Wilson and her front-bench team (35%), the internal division and instability on display in recent weeks (30%), the fear a Coalition Government will cut services and pursue an unashamedly “pro-business” agenda (30%), and concerns about the Coalition’s social policies (30%).

Respondents were allowed to answer this question at length and touch on different concerns they have.

1) Lack of policy clarity and vision (~45% of responses)

The single biggest concern is that the Coalition:

• Has no clear policies or detailed plans
• Focuses on criticising Labor rather than presenting alternatives
• Lacks a coherent vision for Victoria

This shows up in many variations:

• “No policies”
• “All talk, no substance”
• “Don’t know what they stand for”
• “Reactive, not proactive”

Overall sentiment: voters feel uncertain and unconvinced, rather than strongly opposed.

2) Inexperience and leadership doubts (~35%)

A major theme is concern about:

• Jess Wilson’s experience (often described as “young”, “untested”)
• A broader lack of experienced frontbench talent
• Doubts about whether the party is ready to govern after years in opposition

This is less ideological and more about competence and readiness.

3) Internal division and instability (~30%)

Many respondents repeatedly mention:

• Infighting, disunity, factional conflict
• A “rabble”, “clown show”, or “shambolic” party
• Fear of leadership spills or instability in government

This undermines confidence even among some sympathetic voters.

4) Fear of cuts to services and “pro-business” priorities (~30%)

A very strong concern—especially from critics—is that a Coalition government would:

• Cut funding to health, education, transport, and social services
• Privatise public assets
• Prioritise business and wealthy interests over ordinary people

This reflects a classic ideological divide: economic conservatism vs public service protection

5) Concerns about social policy (~30%)

Many responses raise fears about:

• Racism, discrimination, or anti-immigration rhetoric
• Rollbacks of LGBTQIA+, women’s, and minority rights
• Influence of religious or “far-right” elements

At the same time, an opposing group expresses the reverse concern:

• That the party is not conservative enough
• Too “woke” or “Labor-lite”
• Not aligned with One Nation-style policies

This is one of the clearest signs of deep ideological division in the electorate.

6) Economic management and state debt (~25%)

A shared concern across both supporters and critics:

• Victoria’s high debt
• Whether the Coalition can:
  • Reduce it without causing harm
  • Avoid austerity-driven hardship

Two competing fears:

• “They won’t fix the debt”
• “They’ll cut too much to fix it”

7) Risk of reversing major policies/projects (~20%)

Frequently mentioned risks include:

• Cancelling infrastructure projects (e.g. transport)
• Scrapping the Indigenous Treaty process
• Rolling back climate and renewable energy policies

These concerns are especially strong among progressive respondents.

8) Competence, trust, and integrity (~20%)

Generalised distrust appears often:

• Seen as incompetent, dishonest, or unprepared
• Some cite past Liberal governments or internal scandals
• Others say “no better than Labor”

This reflects broader declining trust in major parties overall.

9) Crime and “tough on crime” focus (~15%)

Some concerns relate to:

• Overemphasis on punitive law-and-order policies
• Lack of preventative or social approaches

Meanwhile, others want the opposite:

• Stronger action on crime

Again, a split electorate rather than consensus.

10) “Nothing could be worse than Labor” sentiment (~15%)

A significant minority express:

• No concerns at all
• View change as necessary regardless of risks
• Believe the Coalition can’t perform worse than the current government

This reflects protest or fatigue voting, not necessarily strong support.

Bottom line

If distilled into one sentence:

The main concern isn’t a single policy—it’s that the Coalition is seen as unclear, internally divided, and unproven, with voters sharply split on whether it would be too conservative or not conservative enough, and uncertain about how it would manage debt, services, and social policy trade-offs.

Voter concerns about a potential re-elected ALP Government led by Jacinta Allan

The five key themes to emerge from over 1,000 responses to the question: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP State Government led by Jacinta Allan?” are concerns about State debt, the budget & financial mismanagement (mentioned by a majority of 65% of respondents), corruption, integrity and transparency (55%), crime, law & order (40%), leadership quality and competence (35%), and the cost of living, economic pressures and taxation (30%).

Respondents were allowed to answer this question at length and touch on different concerns they have.

1) State debt, budget & financial mismanagement (~65% of responses)

The dominant concern by a large margin.
Respondents frequently mention:

• “Massive debt”, “bankruptcy”, “budget blowouts”
• overspending, especially on infrastructure (e.g. major projects)
• lack of a clear plan to reduce debt
• fears of higher taxes to service debt

This theme underpins many others (cost of living, service cuts, taxes).

2) Corruption, integrity & transparency (~55%)

Very prominent and often strongly worded:

• Allegations of corruption, “cover-ups”, “cronyism”
• Links to unions (especially CFMEU)
• Lack of accountability or transparency
• Distrust of leadership (“lies”, “spin”, “broken promises”)

3) Crime, law & order (~40%)

A major social concern:

• Youth crime and repeat offenders
• Perception of being “soft on crime”
• Bail laws and lack of consequences
• Public safety fears (home invasions, violence)

4) Leadership quality & government competence (~35%)

Concerns about:

• Premier’s leadership ability and communication
• “arrogance”, “complacency”, “out of touch”
• Government fatigue after long time in power
• Lack of vision or new ideas

5) Cost of living, taxes & economic pressure (~30%)

Often linked to debt:

• Rising taxes (land tax, tolls, etc.)
• General cost of living pressures
• Impact on middle-income earners, landlords, small business
• Perception of unfair redistribution or “handouts”

6) Infrastructure spending priorities (~25%)

Mixed but often critical:

• Overspending on large projects (e.g. rail, tunnels)
• Cost overruns and poor business cases
• Perception funds diverted from essential services
• Some minority support for infrastructure investment

7) Public services (health, education, police) (~20%)

Concerns include:

• Underfunding of hospitals, schools, emergency services
• Pay for teachers, nurses, police
• Ambulance and healthcare system strain

8) Regional vs metropolitan divide (~15%)

• Perception Melbourne is prioritised over regional Victoria
• Poor roads and services in rural areas
• Lack of investment outside the city

9) Housing & affordability (~10%)

• Housing shortages and rental crisis
• Planning decisions (high-rise development concerns)
• Impact of taxes/regulation on housing supply

10) Ideology, social policy & cultural issues (~10%)

More polarised:

• “Woke” policies, treaty, identity politics
• Immigration concerns
• Environmental/energy policy disagreements (both too progressive and not progressive enough)

11) Union influence (~10%)

Often tied to corruption concerns:

• CFMEU influence on projects and government
• Perception of undue power or “capture”

12) Minority / positive or no concerns (~10%)

A smaller but notable group:

• Express no concerns or support the government
• Prefer stability or see alternatives as worse
• Acknowledge achievements (e.g. infrastructure)

These form a strong “core concern cluster” appearing in a majority of responses, often together.

A second tier of concerns—leadership quality, cost of living, and infrastructure priorities—reinforce dissatisfaction with how government decisions are being made and felt in daily life.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

In-depth detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, Victoria’s eight Upper House regions, occupation, and education is available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll.
To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.