Albanese Government maintains large two-party preferred lead but Coalition moves into second place ahead of One Nation

In the last week ALP primary support was virtually unchanged at 29.5%, L-NP Coalition support increased 1.5% to 24% - Liberals 21% (up 2%) and Nationals 3% (down 0.5%), One Nation dropped 1% to 21.5%, Greens down 1% to 13%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% to 12% according to the Roy Morgan survey conducted from April 27 – May 3, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,681 electors.

On a two-party preferred basis (based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences) ALP 54.5% (unchanged) is well ahead of L-NP 45.5% (unchanged). When preferences are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2025 Federal Election, ALP 53% (down 1%) leads L-NP 47% (up 1%).

ALP maintains large two-party preferred lead among women, and now leads amongst men

Analysis by gender shows the ALP leading strongly amongst women on a two-party preferred basis, although support has narrowed: ALP 56.5% (down 2.5% points) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 2.5% points).

The ALP has gained support amongst men and is now in the lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 52.5% (up 3% points cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 3% point).

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a clear majority under either method.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 67.5 – over 30 points below the neutral level of 100: Only 26.5% of electors say the country is ‘going in the right direction’

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 2.5pts to 67.5 this week. A large majority of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, 59% (down 1.5% points). Only 26.5% (up 1% point) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The low Government Confidence comes as concerns about fuel shortages and rising petrol and diesel prices persist in Australia, and the continuing concerns about the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran which risks causing further problems for Australia’s energy supplies over the next few weeks and months.

There remain considerable differences in the Government Confidence Rating by party. Government Confidence among ALP supporters has increased 2 points to 120 this week, but for supporters of all other parties, is below the neutral level of 100.

Greens supporters have Government Confidence of 81.5 (up 3pts from a week ago), above L-NP Coalition supporters on 47.5 (down 7pts), supporters of Independents/ Other Parties have Government Confidence of 63.5 (up 15pts) and One Nation supporters have a Government Confidence Rating of just 12 (unchanged).

Roy Morgan Interviewing in April & May 2026: Primary Vote & Two-Party Preferred

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: April 6-12, 2026 (n=1,512); April 13-19, 2026 (n=1,620);
April 20-26, 2026 (n=1,587) and April 27 – May 3, 2026 (n=1,681).

ALP leads among Australians aged under 50, Coalition leads for people aged 50+

Analysis of voting patterns by age shows clear trends – on a two-party preferred basis, ALP support is clearly strongest among those aged under 50, while the L-NP Coalition is strongest among those aged 50+.

Among people aged 18-34 the ALP has a commanding two-party preferred lead: ALP 73% cf. L-NP 27% - and this is built on the combined primary support of the Greens (31%) and the ALP (24.5%).

For people aged 35-49, those most likely to have a mortgage and a young family, the ALP has a large two-party preferred lead: ALP 64% cf. L-NP 36%. Primary support for the ALP (38%) is clearly ahead of both the L-NP Coalition (19%) and One Nation (18.5%) in this age group.

For people aged 50-64 the L-NP Coalition continues to lead: L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%. Primary support in this age group is equal for One Nation (28.5%) and the ALP (28.5%), just ahead of the L-NP Coalition (26%)..

For people aged 65+, the L-NP Coalition leads clearly on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 62% cf. ALP 38%, built on large primary support for the L-NP Coalition on 40% well ahead of the ALP on 26.5%.

Of all electors surveyed last week, 5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Roy Morgan Interviewing for April 27 – May 3, 2026: By Gender & Age

*Interviewing dates of Australian electors aged 18+: April 27 – May 3, 2026 (n=1,681).

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.