Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP (26%) and ALP (26%) level on primary and ahead of One Nation (23.5%); however, L-NP narrowly leads ALP on two-party preferred basis (51% cf. 49%)

In early August the L-NP Coalition 26% (up 2% since April) and ALP 26% (up 0.5%) are level on primary vote ahead of One Nation 23.5% (down 1%) and 24.5% (down 1.5%) support Other Parties and Independents including the Greens 12.5% (down 1%), Other Parties 4% (unchanged) and Independents 8% (down 0.5%) according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

Importantly, the L-NP Coalition is now narrowly ahead of the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 51% (up 2% from April) cf. ALP 49% (down 2%).

If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

This special SMS Roy Morgan Poll was conducted after Ben Carroll became ALP Leader and the new Victorian Premier on Tuesday July 28, after Carroll’s cabinet re-shuffle completed on Tuesday August 4, and after One Nation announced Warren Pickering as the leader of One Nation Victoria on Monday August 3.

Two-Party Preferred results show L-NP Coalition leading the ALP and well in front of One Nation

Roy Morgan has analysed three different two-party preferred results between the ALP and the L-NP Coalition, ALP and One Nation, and the L-NP Coalition and One Nation.

The L-NP Coalition is ahead of both the ALP and One Nation on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 51% (up 2% points from April) cf. ALP 49% (down 2% points) and against One Nation: L-NP 63.5% (up 4.5% points) cf. One Nation 36.5% (down 4.5% points). The L-NP’s large lead over One Nation is due to the preferences of ALP voters heavily favouring the L-NP Coalition.

Despite the ALP losing ground to the L-NP Coalition, the ALP has strengthened its position against One Nation on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 56% (up 2.5% points) cf. One Nation 44% (down 2.5% points).

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP ahead of the L-NP Coalition and One Nation

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 43.5% (down 1% from April), well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 30% (up 2% points) and One Nation on 26.5% (down 1% point).

The important factor in looking at a three-party preferred result is it shows the ALP is in a strong position to progress to the final two-party preferred contest due to the strong flow of preferences to the ALP from the supporters of the Greens, and Independent candidates.

Although the ALP performs well on a three-party preferred result, the flow of preferences from One Nation to the L-NP Coalition means the L-NP Coalition overtakes the ALP on a two-party preferred basis.

In three-way contest, Premier Ben Carroll is preferred to Jess Wilson and Warren Pickering

Electors were asked: "Thinking of Premier Ben Carroll, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and One Nation Leader Warren Pickering. In your opinion, who would make the better Victorian Premier?"

A plurality of 46.5% of electors selected Premier Ben Carroll as the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 35.5% for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson and just 16% for One Nation Leader Warren Pickering.

A look at the demographic results shows Premier Ben Carroll is preferred by both genders, all four key age groups, in Melbourne, and by ALP, Greens, Independent, and Other Party supporters.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is considered the ‘Better Premier’ by Country Victorians as well as supporters of the L-NP Coalition. One Nation Leader Warren Pickering is clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ by supporters of One Nation.

Narrow majority of Victorian electors approve of Premier Ben Carroll’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Ben Carroll is handling his job as Premier of Victoria?"

A majority of 51% of electors approve of the way Mr. Ben Carroll is handling his job as Premier of Victoria (up 18.5% points since April 2026 when Jacinta Allan was Premier) compared to 43% (down 23.5% points), disapprove, while 6% (up 5% points) can’t say.

Mr. Carroll enjoys majority approval among electors aged 18-34, 35-49, and 50-64, electors in Melbourne, and supporters of the ALP, Greens, and Independents. And for both genders, and electors in Country Victoria, more approve than disapprove.

In contrast, a majority of L-NP, One Nation and Other Party supporters disapprove of Mr. Carroll’s handing of the job, and more electors aged 65+ disapprove than approve.

A clear majority of Victorian electors approve of Opposition Leader Jess Wilson’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Jess Wilson is handling her job as Opposition Leader in Victoria?"

A clear majority 58.5% (up 10% points) of electors approve of Liberal Leader Jess Wilson’s performance as Opposition Leader while 38.5% (down 10% points) disapprove, and a further 3% (unchanged) can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader include clear majorities of both genders, majorities of all four key age groups, a majority of electors in Melbourne and Country Victoria, and a majority of L-NP Coalition supporters and One Nation supporters.

The electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader in Victoria include only ALP supporters, Greens supporters and supporters of Other Parties

One Nation Leader Warren Pickering faces widespread disapproval after becoming Victorian Leader

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Warren Pickering is handling his job as One Nation Leader in Victoria?"

Just days after Warren Pickering became the leader of One Nation Victoria, a large majority of 58.5% of electors disapprove of Pickering’s handling of his job compared to 35% that approve while 6.5% can’t say.

The electors who disapprove of the job Mr. Pickering is doing as One Nation Leader include a majority of both genders, a majority of people in all four key age groups, a majority of electors in Melbourne and a majority of supporters of the ALP, Greens, Independents, and Other Parties. In Country Victoria, more disapprove than approve of Mr. Pickering’s handling of his job.

In contrast, the only electors who approve of the job Mr. Pickering is doing as One Nation Leader are supporters of One Nation – over 90% approve of Mr. Pickering’s performance as leader.

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.In-depth detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, Victoria’s eight Upper House regions, occupation, and education is available to subscribers to the Morgan Poll.
To learn more contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.