Roy Morgan forecasts Australian Retail Sales to hit $40 billion a month for the first time in August
New retail sales forecasts from Roy Morgan show Australian Retail Sales are set to hit $40 billion a month for the first time in August, up 6% on a year ago.
The three categories driving growth are Household Goods, forecast to grow 8.8% to almost $6.7 billion, Hospitality, set to grow 6.2% to over $5.9 billion, and Other Retailing projected to grow 7.5% to over $7 billion.
The Clothing category is forecast to grow 5.7% to over $3 billion while the slowest growth is predicted for Department Stores, up 2.3% to $1.66 billion.
The largest category is Food with expected sales of over $15.6 billion in August, up 4.6% on a year ago and representing 39% of all forecast retail sales in August.
Overall, Non-Food categories are projected to grow by 6.9% to over $24.3 billion in sales for August, driven by the large increases for Household Goods (+8.8%) and Other Retailing (+7.5%).
Roy Morgan’s Forecast Retail Sales for August 2026 by Category
New South Wales, Western Australia, and South Australia set for fastest retail sales growth
The fastest retail sales growth by State is set to be in Western Australia with an increase of 7.2% on a year ago to total retail sales of over $4.8 billion in August, just ahead of South Australia, up 6.4% to over $2.6 billion.
Australia’s largest State of New South Wales is also set to enjoy faster than average growth, with retail sales projected to increase 6.1% to over $12 billion for the first time in a single month.
There is also solid growth projected for Victoria, up 5.9% to over $9.9 billion, Queensland, up 5.5% to $8.8 billion, and Tasmania, up 4.7% to over $820 million.
The Northern Territory, with estimated annual growth of 7.6% to over $350 million, is set to grow faster than anywhere else. In contrast, projected growth for the ACT, at only 4.6% to almost $660 million, is the lowest of any State or Territory.
Roy Morgan’s Forecast Retail Sales for August 2026 by State & Territory
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About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States and the United Kingdom. A full-service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
