November 11, 2022

ALP lead over Coalition in Victoria narrows since October and is back to 2018 Election result as minor parties surge: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%

Topic: State Poll
Finding No: 9108
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The ALP has retained a large election winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria with the ALP now on 57% (down 3.5% points since campaigning began) and well ahead of the L-NP on 43% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

The two-party preferred results of this week’s special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll are almost identical to the results from the 2018 Victorian Election in which the ALP on 57.3% defeated the L-NP on 42.7% - a margin of 14.6% points.

However, comparing the primary voting results from this Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll to the 2018 Victorian Election shows a large move to minor parties and independents – the same thing Roy Morgan saw at this year’s Federal Election.

Primary vote support for the two major parties shows the ALP now at 40% (down 2.9% points from the 2018 Victorian Election) ahead of the L-NP on 29% (down 6.2% points).

Support for the Greens is at 11.5% (up 0.8% points) while total support for ‘Other parties and independents’ is now at 19.5% (up 8.3% points). Among the minor parties support for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ is now at 4.5% while there is 1% support for Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party, 0.5% support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party and 13.5% support other minor parties and independents.

Approval for Premier Daniel Andrews down since August, but Andrews has maintained his lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as preferred Premier

This Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll found 58.5% (down 4% points since mid-August) of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, while 41.5% (up 4% points) now disapprove.

Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

Despite the drop in approval for Premier Daniel Andrews over the last three months the Premier has largely retained his huge lead over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy as the preferred Premier.

Now 65.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors say Daniel Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 34.5% (up 0.5% points) who say Matthew Guy – a margin of nearly 2:1 in favour of the incumbent.

A look at the gender breakdown on ‘Better Premier’ shows 69.5% of women prefer Daniel Andrews compared to only 30.5% supporting Matthew Guy while for men it is a narrower result with 61.5% preferring Daniel Andrews compared to 38.5% supporting Matthew Guy.

Victorian two-party preferred results 2018-2022

Base: Victorian electors aged 18+. Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll in Sept. 2020, Nov. 11, 2021, Nov. 24, 2021, July 2, 2022, August 13, 2022 and Nov. 10, 2022. Roy Morgan multi-mode polls in August, September and October 2022.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,030 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Wednesday November 9, 2022, to Thursday November 10, 2022.

The results of the multi-mode Roy Morgan survey of 1,156 Victorian electors in October (released for the first time today) showed the ALP retained a strong two-party preferred lead over the L-NP last month: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%.

The result for October is identical to the previous Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted in mid-August and indicates the 3.5% swing to the L-NP happened in early November as campaigning began. Early voting in this year’s Victorian election is set to begin on Monday November 13, 2022.

To purchase full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy for $9,800 contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.
By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+ 
PRIMARY2018 Vic
Election
Nov
2020
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022Aug 11-13, 2022Aug. 2022*Sept.
2022*
Oct.
2022*
Nov 9-10,
2022
VOTE%%%%%%%%%
ALP42.9454543.540.536.54242.540
Liberal30.430.5272724.527262525.5
National4.8422.53222.53.5
L-NP35.234.52929.527.5292827.529
Greens10.71110.512141414.51411.5
Total Others11.29.515.5151820.515.51619.5
Justice Partyn/an/a211.50.50.50.51
UAP: United Australia Partyn/an/a4220.510.50.5
‘Teal Independents’n/an/an/a35111.54.5
Other Parties & Independents2.59.59.599.57.51213
One Nationn/an/an/an/an/a222n/a
Liberal Democrats0.1n/an/an/an/a1.511.5n/a
Animal Justice Party1.8n/an/an/an/a111n/a
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party0.7n/an/an/an/a0.50.50.5n/a
Legalise Cannabis Partyn/an/an/an/an/a0.50.50.5n/a
‘Other Independents’6.1n/an/an/an/a5.576n/a
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

*August 2022, September 2022 and October 2022 results are from Roy Morgan surveys done throughout the months via online and telephone interviewing. Previous results for September 2020 – August 11-13, 2022 and November 9, 2022 are from Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys.

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+ 
 2018 Vic
Election
Nov
2020
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022Aug 11-13, 2022Aug. 2022*Sept.
2022*
Oct.
2022*
Nov 9-10,
2022
2PP%%%%%%%%%
ALP57.358.559.559.560.5586060.557
L-NP42.741.540.540.539.5424039.543
TOTAL100100100100100100100100100

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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