Roy Morgan Research
November 15, 2022

NZ Election is ‘too close to call’ with Labour/Greens (44.5%) even with National/Act NZ (44.5%) as minor parties surge

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9114
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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the current governing Labour/Greens coalition is now even with a potential National/Act NZ coalition with both sides on 44.5% in October as support for smaller parties increased 1.5% points to 11%.

If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election it would be the Maori Party, with 3% support and potentially four seats in the next Parliament, who would determine which of the two coalitions would form the next Government.

The gap between the two sides of politics has dissipated in October as support for the Labour/Greens coalition increased 2.5% points to 44.5% to be even with a potential National/Act NZ coalition, down 4% points to 44.5%.

In October the rise in support for the governing coalition was due to an increase in support for the Greens, up 3% points to 15.5% - a new record high for the left-of-centre party. In contrast, governing partners Labour lost further support, down 0.5% points to 29% - the lowest level of support for Labour since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power over five years ago in October 2017.

The news was not good for the main Opposition National which lost significant support in October, down 4% points to 32% - the lowest support for National Leader Chris Luxon since he became leader nearly a year ago. Support for potential governing partners Act NZ was unchanged at 12.5%.

Unlike other minor parties, support for the Maori Party dropped 0.5% points to 3% in October, although the party remains the best placed of the minor parties to hold the balance of power in a new Parliament.

In addition, a minority of 8% of electors (up 2% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First up 2.5% points to 3.5%, The Opportunities Party up 0.5% points to 3% and support for the New Conservative Party was unchanged at 0.5% in October.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 951 electors during October. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 7%, up 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was up 6pts to 92 in October

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 6pts in October to 92. The indicator is now down a massive 33pts from just over a year ago in September 2021.

In October just over two-fifths, 42% (up 4.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 50% (down 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Women favour the governing Labour/Greens while men favour a National/Act NZ coalition

Women continue to favour the Labour/ Greens coalition (50%) over a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (41%) – a gap of an even 9% points in favour of the incumbent.

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 52.5% compared to 43.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 the lead is of a similar margin with 47.5% supporting Labour/ Greens, and a gap of 9% points to National/Act NZ on 38.5%.

There is a stark difference for men with 48% supporting National or Act NZ compared to only 38.5% supporting Labour or the Greens. There was a narrow margin for men aged 18-49 with 44% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 42% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a larger gap with a majority of 52.5%, supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 34.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Almost one-in-four women aged 18-49 (23.5%) and one-in-five men aged 18-49 (18.5%) support the Greens compared to only 9% of women aged 50+ and 8% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of only 2% of men including 1.5% support from men aged 18-49 and 3% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4.5% of women including 7% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 29 33.5 24 43.5 24.5 23.5 26.5
Greens 15.5 16.5 23.5 9 14 18.5 8
Labour/ Greens 44.5 50 47.5 52.5 38.5 42 34.5
               
National 32 32.5 28.5 36.5 32 28 36.5
Act NZ 12.5 8.5 10 7 16 16 16
Maori Party 3 4.5 7 2 2 1.5 3
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 47.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 50 45.5 55.5
               
Others 8 4.5 7 2 11.5 12.5 10
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 42 42 40.5 44 42 47 36
Wrong Direction 50 48.5 50 46.5 51 47 56
Government Confidence Rating 92 93.5 90.5 97.5 91 100 80
Can’t say 8 9.5 9.5 9.5 7 6 8
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 80 in October

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating improved in October with the increases spread across the gender and age spectrums.

Among women overall now 48.5% (down 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 42% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 93.5 (up 5.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased by 5pts to 90.5 and for women aged 50+ was up by 6pts to 97.5.

A slim majority of men, 51% (down 3% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over two-fifths of men, 42% (up 4.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 91 (up 7pts). Younger men aged 18-49 have a far higher Government Confidence Rating of 100 (up 5pts) while for older men aged 50+ it was up 9.5pts to only 80.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says next year’s New Zealand Election is currently on a ‘knife’s edge’ with both major parties losing support in October while support has increased for the Greens, and other minor parties including NZ First and The Opportunities Party:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a tight contest between the two major parties and their respective allies. The governing Labour/ Greens coalition has scored 44.5% support in October to be ‘dead even’ with the right-leaning potential National/Act NZ coalition on 44.5%.

“The result means the decision on who will form Government after next year’s NZ Election could well rest with the Maori Party which now has 3% support. Aside from the Maori Party support has also increased for other minor parties vying to win seats in the new Parliament including NZ First, up 2.5% points to 3.5%, and The Opportunities Party, up 0.5% points to 3%.

“The big loser in October was National led by Christopher Luxon. Support for National fell by 4% points to 32% – and this is the lowest level of support for the party since Luxon took over as leader at the end of November a year ago.

“As we close in on an election year it’s clear the ‘honeymoon’ is over for Luxon. Before now support for National had never dipped below 35% so far this year, but now questions are sure to be raised over whether Luxon is the leader to return National to Government later next year.

“National’s impressive Deputy Leader Nicola Willis certainly presents as a strong candidate for leadership should faith in Luxon’s capabilities as a leader begin to wane.

“Although the results from October aren’t good for National, they also aren’t positive for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party which dropped 0.5% points to 29% – the lowest level of support for Labour since the Ardern-led Government took office in October 2017.

“The fall in support for Labour was to some extent covered up by the rising level of support for the Greens, up 3% points to 15.5% – a record high level of support for the party as nations from around the world gather in Egypt for UN brokered climate talks known as COP-27.

“It’s yet to be seen whether COP-27 will produce a successful outcome in Egypt but the strength of global warming and climate change as an important issue to New Zealanders is certainly emphasised by support for the Greens hitting a record high.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – October 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 34.33
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021
January 2021 58.5 36
February 2021 58.5 37.5
March 2021 57.5 35
April 2021 55 41
May 2021 56 39
June 2021 51 43.5
July 2021 49.5 44.5
August 2021 51.5 40.5
September 2021 55 41
October 2021 50 44
November 2021 46.5 47
December 2021 44 51
2022
January 2022 43.5 51
February 2022 43 51.5
March 2022 42.5 49
April 2022 44 49
May 2022 43 51
June 2022 43.5 50
July 2022 44.5 50
August 2022 44 51
September 2022 42 52
October 2022 44.5 47.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE ELECTIONS Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
  % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 1.5 4 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2 2.5 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 1 3 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 2 1.5 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 2.5 1.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1 1.5 2.5
September 2022 29.5 12.5 36 12.5 3.5 2.5 1 2.5
October 2022 29 15.5 32 12.5 3 3 3.5 1.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT ELECTIONS Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
  % % % % % % %
               
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN SEAT PREDICTOR              
2021              
January 2021 60 15 32 11 2 0 0
February 2021 56 17 36 10 1 0 0
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022              
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0
September 2022 38 16 46 16 4 0 0
October 2022 38 20 42 16 4 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
  Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5 71 70.5 68.5 69.5 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19 19 19.5 21 20 18
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5 152 151 147.5 149.5 153.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5 10 10 10.5 10.5 10.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Oct
2021
Nov 2021 Dec

2021

Jan
2022
Feb
2022
Mar
2022
Apr
2022
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 71.5 69.5 61.5 62.5 62.5 57 55.5 52.5 57 48 46 42.5 48.5 42.5 39 43
Wrong direction 18.5 20 26 26.5 28.5 33 34.5 37.5 32 38.5 44.5 44.5 42 47.5 51.5 49.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 153 149.5 135.5 136 134 124 121 115 125 109.5 101.5 98 106.5 95 87.5 93.5
Can’t say 10 10.5 12.5 11 9 10 10 10 11 13.5 9.5 13 9.5 10 9.5 7.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  May
2022
Jun
2022
Jul
2022
Aug
2022
Sep
2022
Oct
2022
Nov
2022
Dec
2022
Jan
2023
Feb
2023
Mar 2023 Apr

2023

May
2023
Jun
2023
Jul
2023
Aug
2023
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 40 39 40.5 37.5 37.5 42                    
Wrong direction 50 51.5 51 53 51.5 50                    
Roy Morgan GCR# 90 87.5 89.5 84.5 86 92                    
Can’t say 10 9.5 8.5 9.5 11 8                    
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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