November 22, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 81.6 – first consecutive weekly increases since late September

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9115
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 0.8pts to 81.6 this week and is now 25.8pts below the same week a year ago, November 20/21, 2021 (107.4). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 7.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.2.

Although the wider move in Consumer Confidence was up this week there were mixed results around the nation. The two larger States of NSW and Queensland both decreased this week, while the other three mainland States, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia all increased.

Across the index the two questions that drove the weekly increase related to Australia’s economic performance over the next five years and whether or not now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 30% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 36% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost two-fifths, 39% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has slightly improved this week with 14% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (down 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while more than twice as many, 46% (down 4ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

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Consumer confidence increased 1% last week, likely boosted by solid employment growth in October and a further easing in inflation expectations. Household inflation expectations (IE) eased to 6.3%, but this is the sixth consecutive week with IE above 6%. Despite the consecutive gains, sentiment remains close to levels last seen during the early weeks of the COVID lockdowns. Critically, though, ANZ-observed spending data suggests that consumer spending has stayed strong, with spending momentum similar to pre-pandemic levels. The jump in whether “it is a good time to buy a major household item” may signal sentiment regarding purchases on Black Friday this week.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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