ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.1pts to 79.3 and up 2.8pts from mid-March low of 76.5
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.1pts to 79.3 this week after the RBA paused a run of ten consecutive interest rate increases last week. The index has now increased a modest 2.8pts from it’s mid-March low of 76.5 – the lowest it has been since early in the pandemic.
However, this is the sixth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least six weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 15.3pts below the same week a year ago, April 4-10, 2022 (94.6) and 1.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.2. Consumer Confidence was up in most States including Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia, but down slightly in NSW.
The driver of this week’s increase was improved buying sentiment with more Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items following the RBA’s decision to pause interest rate increases while there was little change in views on personal finances or the Australian economy.
Current financial conditions
- Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 52% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 32% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while a third, 33% (down 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 37% (up 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now 20% (up 2ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 52% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:
Consumer confidence rose 1.1pts after the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at its April meeting. Unsurprisingly, this was the most positive result following an RBA meeting since before rate hikes began in May last year, with the gain led by those paying off their mortgage (+3.9pts). This was also the first time confidence had increased for three consecutive weeks since November 2022, with a cumulative rise of 2.8pts since mid-March. But overall confidence is still very weak, stuck below 80pts for a sixth consecutive week. Household inflation expectations dropped 0.6ppt to 5.1%, the lowest since mid-February, with a range of data confirming Australia has passed peak annual inflation.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|