Roy Morgan Research
June 06, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 75.8 this week before today’s RBA meeting

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9245

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 75.8 this week (down 0.4pts) and has now spent fourteen straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least fourteen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 11.2pts below the same week a year ago, May 30 – June 5, 2022 (87.0) and 4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.8. Looking around the States there were mixed results with Consumer Confidence up in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but down in NSW and SA.

There were varied movements in the index this week with personal finances down slightly from a week ago but a slight improvement in buying conditions as we enter the End of Financial Year sales period – with expected sales of $9.3 Billion forecast by Roy Morgan and the Australian Retailer’s Association.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 17% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 54% (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 28% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for over three years since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic) while nearly two-fifths, 39% (up 4ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator for well over 30 years since August 1989).

Current economic conditions

  • Only 5% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost two-fifths, 39% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth, 21% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions has improved slightly this week as we enter the Mid-Year and End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales period with 21% (up 2ppts) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 52% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence edged lower last week, and was in deeply negative territory, below 80 for the 14th week in a row. Confidence about future financial conditions fell to its lowest level since the start of the COVID outbreak in late March 2020. Among the housing cohorts, confidence among the outright homeowners fell 4.6pts, while it rose for those paying off their homes (+1pt) and those renting (+3.2). While the “time to buy a household item” index remained deeply negative, below 70 for a 17th straight week, it did improve to its best weekly result since February.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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