ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 77.7 after the RBA unexpectedly increases interest rates again
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 2.1pts to 77.7 this week and has now spent ten straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least ten weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 12.8pts below the same week a year ago, May 2-8, 2022 (90.5) and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.6. As usual Consumer Confidence was mixed around the States with decreases in Victoria, WA and SA, but up slightly in NSW and Queensland.
The driver of this week’s decrease was growing concern about the Australian economy’s performance going forward as well as less confidence that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items following the RBA’s latest interest rate increase, up 0.25% to 3.85%.
Current financial conditions
- Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the lowest figure for this indicator for over three decades since March 1991).
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 32% (up 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 34% (unchanged), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly two-fifths, 38% (up 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 11% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to a fifth, 20% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 53% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
RBA’s surprise interest rate increase likely pushed consumer confidence lower last week, to its eighth weakest result since March 2020. Confidence remained below 80 for a tenth straight week, the longest stretch below 80 since the 1990-91 recession when the survey was conducted monthly, and it was below 80 for five consecutive months. Confidence declined among all housing cohorts and fell the most for those paying off their homes (-3.2pts). Current economic and financial conditions were most affected, with both indices falling below 70.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
