No ‘Budget Bounce’ as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 75.9 – lowest since early April 2020
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 75.9 this week and has now spent eleven straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least eleven weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 13.4pts below the same week a year ago, May 9-15, 2022 (89.3) and 4.4pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.3. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Queensland, WA and SA but up in Victoria.
The driver of this week’s decrease was less confidence about personal financial situations compared to a year ago and over the next year while views on the Australian economy were largely unchanged after last week’s Federal Budget.
Current financial conditions
- Now 17% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator for over three years since April 2020) compared to 56% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (a new record high figure for this indicator). This is the biggest net negative (-39) on this question in the history of the survey.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 30% (down 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 37% (up 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly two-fifths, 37% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to almost a fifth, 19% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now 18% (unchanged) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 55% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
Consumer confidence declined to its weakest since April 2020 and stayed below 80 for an 11th consecutive week. ‘Economic conditions’ rose, perhaps in part due to the announcement of the surplus in the federal budget on 9 May. Confidence fell for both present and future financial conditions and the subindex for whether it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’. Notably, ‘current financial conditions’ fell to its lowest value on record since 2001. Among the housing cohorts, confidence fell for those renting (-4.1) and those paying off their homes (-2.2), while it rose for those who own their homes outright (+2.0).
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|