Roy Morgan Research
May 23, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 77.3 – recovering some of the post-RBA interest rate increase slump

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9235
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.4pts to 77.3 this week and has now spent twelve straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least twelve weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 13.5pts below the same week a year ago, May 16-22, 2022 (90.8) and 2.9pts below the 2023 weekly average of 80.2. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was up in Victoria, Queensland, WA and SA but down in New South Wales.

The driver of this week’s increase was relatively more confidence about personal financial situations compared to a year ago while other indicators were largely unchanged compared to a week ago.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 18% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 49% (down 7ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 30% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 36% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly two-fifths, 39% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth, 21% (up 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 17% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 53% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence improved a little last week, driven by improvements in confidence about current and future financial conditions. But confidence was still among the worst ten results since January 2020, seven of which have occurred between March and May of 2023. This highlights the impact of cost-of-living pressure and rising interest rates, despite low unemployment and an acceleration in annual wage growth to 3.7% y/y in Q1. Confidence jumped for those renting (+9.6pts), while it was down for those paying off their homes (-3.7pts) and those who own their homes outright (-1.8pts). Those paying off their homes have lower confidence than other housing cohorts.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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