Roy Morgan Research
September 29, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 1.4pts to 86.4 in September

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9358
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.4 points in September to 86.4, with small improvements across most questions.

• The exception was whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the net figure was down 1 point to -32%).

• Inflation expectations fell 0.4ppts to 4.2%, its lowest read for over two years since March 2021.

Overall, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted slightly in September, but remains at very low levels.

Turning to the detail:

• The net perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 1 point to -23% with under a quarter, 24% (up 2ppts) of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than a year ago compared to nearly half, 46% (unchanged) who say they are 'worse off'.

• People are more positive about the year ahead with a net 15% expecting to be better off this time next year, up 2 points on a month ago.

• However, a net 32% think it’s a 'bad time to buy a major household item', a 1-point dip after last month’s 8-point improvement. The level remains very weak, consistent with ongoing softness in retail spending.

• Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time remain very week but nevertheless improved 2 points to -32%. Looking over the longer-term people are more positive with the 5-year-ahead measure lifting 2 points to +3%.

• House price inflation expectations lifted further, from 2.4% to 3.2%, their highest for over 18 months since February 2022 (4.8%). That was led by Auckland (up 1.1ppt to 3.7%), Wellington (up 1.1ppt to 2.4%) and the rest of the North Island (up 1.2ppt to 3.8%). Canterbury (2.3%) and the rest of the South Island (2.1%) fell slightly.

• Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased from 4.6% to 4.2%, the lowest read since March 2021 (when CPI inflation was just 1.5% y/y, but on the cusp of accelerating towards a peak of 7.3% by mid-2022).

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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