Roy Morgan Research
January 30, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.9pts to 82.5 after Albanese Government breaks promise and vows changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9405
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.9pts to 82.5 this week after the Albanese Government broke an election promise and vowed to change the long-awaited Stage 3 tax cuts.

Consumer Confidence dropped to its lowest so far in 2024 and has now spent a record 52 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.3pts below the same week a year ago, January 23-29, 2023 (86.8), but still 4.5 points above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0.

There were mixed results around the States with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia but up in Victoria.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 50% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, over a third of Australians, 34% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since late January 2023) while 32% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • Now only 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly a third, 31% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has declined slightly this week with 11% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 21% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions deteriorated this week with 22% (down 3ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 48% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence softened last week but the four-week moving average rose to its highest level since early February 2023. The four-week average of inflation expectations was at its equal-lowest since March 2022, ahead of quarterly CPI data due out this week. We expect headline inflation to come in at 4.3% y/y to Q4 2023, below the RBA’s forecast of 4.5%. A rate hold in February would be supported by this result and would buoy confidence, particularly among indebted homeowners. Over the last month, confidence among all housing cohorts improved.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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