Roy Morgan Research
December 20, 2023

A hint of Christmas cheer – ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rises 1 points to 93.1 in December

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9409

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence rose 1 point in December to 93.1, with a small tick up in both current and future conditions.

  • Inflation Expectations dropped from 4.6% to 3.9%, likely impacted by cheaper fuel prices. This is the first sub-4% read since October 2020.

Turning to the detail:

  • The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions rose 1 point to 102, while the current conditions index rose 2 points to 80.
  • Perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 3 points to a net reading of -16%, still very low but the highest in a bit over a year with 24% of respondents (up 2% on a month ago) saying they are 'better off' financially than this time last year compared to 39% (down 2%) who say they are 'worse off' financially.
  • A net 25% expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year, up 9 points to the highest since mid-2021.
  • A net 25% think it’s a 'bad time to buy' a major household item, unchanged. The level is consistent with ongoing softness in per capita retail spending.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time was flat at a net rating of -21%. This includes 18% (down 3%) who say there will be 'good times' for the New Zealand economy over the next year and more than twice as many, 39% (down 3%), who say there will be 'bad times'. The 5-year-ahead measure on the New Zealand economy fell 7 points to a net rating just in positive territory at +2%.
  • House price inflation expectations were little changed at 4.1%. Somewhat surprisingly, Wellington has the highest house price inflation expectations at 5.5%.
  • Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell from 4.6% to 3.9%, the lowest read in three years. A sharp fall in petrol prices likely contributed.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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