National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for December 2023 shows new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 51.5% (down 6.5% from November) in their first month since being sworn in on November 27, 2023.
Support for National was down 1.5% to 36%, while support for ACT dropped 3% points to 9.5% and support for NZ First was down 2% points to 6%.
In December support for the defeated Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition was at 42.5%, up 6.5% points from November.
Support for Labour increased 1% point to 22% while support for the Greens surged 3% points to 15.5% - the highest support for the Greens for over a year since October 2022 and support for the Maori Party was up 2.5% points to 5%.
A further 6% of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament, unchanged from November. This includes 4% (up 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 2% (down 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 66 seats in Parliament
The survey results for December would lead to 66 seats (down eight seats) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 56 seats (up eight seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 46 seats (down two seats), support for ACT would equal 12 seats (down four seats) and NZ First would win eight seats (down two seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 28 seats (up one seat), Greens support would mean 20 seats (up four seats) and the Maori Party would win 8 seats (up three seats).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during December 2023. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 1.5% (down 3.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 2.5pts to 93 in December
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2.5pts to 93 in December to its highest for nine months since February 2023 (95) – the month after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned.
In December, 38% (up 1.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 45% (down 1% point) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 1.2pts to 93.1 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 84.4 on January 15-21, 2024.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 58%, over 20% points in front of the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 36.5%.
In contrast, women marginally favour the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 48% just ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 45%.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest among men aged 50+ with 59% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to only 40% supporting Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for National (40%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 are also heavily in favour of the governing coalition with 58.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to only 36.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. This demographic also has the highest support for ACT on 14.5% - higher than the support for the Labour Party which registers only 13.5% in this demographic.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a majority of 52% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 44% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 30.5% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 52.5% well ahead of the governing National/ACT/ NZ First coalition on 38.5%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 26%, over 10% points higher support than the Greens attract from any other gender and age group analysed. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October are drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election |
Dec. 2023 |
Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 36 | 34 | 28.5 | 39 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 40 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 6 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51.5 | 45.5 | 38.5 | 52 | 58 | 56.5 | 59 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 24 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 15.5 | 17.5 | 26 | 10 | 13.5 | 15.5 | 11 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 42.5 | 48 | 52.5 | 44 | 36.5 | 33.5 | 40 |
| Others | 5.6 | 6 | 6.5 | 9 | 4 | 5.5 | 10 | 1 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 38 | 32.5 | 31.5 | 33.5 | 43.5 | 42 | 45.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 45 | 51.5 | 60 | 42 | 38 | 36 | 40.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 93 | 81 | 71.5 | 91.5 | 105.5 | 106 | 105 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 17 | 16 | 8.5 | 24.5 | 18.5 | 22 | 14 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for men of all ages
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 2.5pts to 93 in December.
A plurality of men, 43.5% (up 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 38% (down 6% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 105.5 (up 11.5pts) and up a massive 38.5pts since the New Zealand Election.
The Government Confidence Rating of older men aged 50+ increased 2pts to 105. Younger men aged 18-49 now have Government Confidence of 106, following an increase of 18pts in December.
Among women overall now a majority of 51.5% (up 3.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while under a third, 32.5% (down 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 81 (down 5.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 plunged by 15pts to 71.5 while it was up 6.5pts to 91.5 for women aged 50+.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s – sworn in at the end of November – is clearly in his honeymoon period with support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition at a majority of 51.5% support:
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition has dropped 6.5% to 51.5% in December but still with a commanding lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 42.5% (up 6.5%).
“The massive gender split in support continues with a clear majority of men, 58%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 36.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a difference of 21.5% points.
“In contrast, a plurality of 48% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 45.5% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of 2.5% points. Overall, this represents a 24% point difference between men and women.
“This difference is most stark for younger New Zealanders. Men aged 18-49 support the governing coalition by 23% points over the Parliamentary Opposition while women of that age support the Parliamentary Opposition by 14% points – an overall gender difference of a large 37.5% points.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. Support for National is highest for men aged 50+ at 40% while support for ACT is highest amongst men aged 18-49 at 14.5%. It’s a different picture amongst women with support for Labour highest for women aged 50+ at 30.5% while support for the Greens is highest amongst women aged 18-49 at 26%. Greens support amongst younger women is over 10% points higher than for any other gender and age group.
“There was also a second consecutive boost to the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – up 2.5pts to 93. This is the highest rating for Government Confidence since February 2023 (95) – just after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned from the top job and left Parliament.
“The Government Confidence Rating is far higher for men (105.5), including men aged 18-49 (105) and men aged 50+ (106), than women (81). Women aged 18-49 have Government Confidence of only 71.5 – following a fall of 15pts in December while older women aged 50+ have a significantly higher Government Confidence of 91.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
