Roy Morgan Research
May 14, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged before pre-election Federal Budget set to be handed down

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9480

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.2 this week. The index has now spent a record 67 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 4.3 points above the same week a year ago, May 8-14, 2023 (75.9), and 2.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.5.

Looking around the States, there were mixed results, with Consumer Confidence down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia but up slightly in New South Wales and Queensland.

There was little change in views on personal finances or the economy in the week before the Federal Budget but there was a decline in Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items in the week after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at a 12-year high.

Current financial conditions

  • Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (unchanged), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 50% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Views on personal finances over the next year were unchanged with 32% expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 33% expecting to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • Under one-in-ten Australians, 9% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to a third, 33% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term also deteriorated this week with 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a fifth, 22% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Net buying intentions were down this week with under a fifth, 19% (down 2ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year) while 52% (up 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year).

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is very weak, sitting at its lowest level for the year. Despite the RBA keeping the cash rate unchanged at last week’s meeting, consumer confidence fell 3.8pts for those paying off a mortgage. Confidence amongst this group is at a 2024 low, and is once again weaker than confidence amongst renters. This may be linked to recent discussion that rates will remain higher for longer. Within the subindices, confidence about the five-year outlook for the economy fell to its lowest level for the year. Similarly, the time to buy a major household item index was also at a 2024 low. We’ll be looking to see if confidence picks up following tonight’s Budget, which will contain a range of cost-of-living measures.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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