National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for February 2024 shows the new National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 55% (up 3.5% points from January) with a large lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 41% (down 1% point).
Support for National was down 2.5% to 35.5%, but support for ACT increased 4.5% points to 12% and support for NZ First was up 1.5% to 7.5%.
Support for Labour was down 0.5% to 21.5% while support for the Greens was unchanged at 15.5% - the equal highest level of support for the Greens for over a year since October 2022 and support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 4%.
A further 4% (down 2.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament, unchanged from January. This includes 2.5% (down 2% points) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (down 0.5%) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Current level of support for National/ ACT/ NZ First would translate to 69 seats in Parliament
The survey results for February would lead to 69 seats (up one seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 51 seats (down four seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 45 seats (down four seats), support for ACT would equal 15 seats (up four seats) and NZ First would win nine seats (up one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 27 seats (down seven seats), Greens support would mean 19 seats (up four seats) and the Maori Party would win 5 seats (down one seat).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 935 electors from January 29 – February 25, 2024. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops back into negative territory below 100
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 3pts to 98 in February as sentiment turned marginally negative. Now 41.5% (down 0.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ while 43.5% (up 2.5% points) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 0.9pts to 94.5 and is clearly above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 81.0 on Feb. 27 – Mar 3, 2024.
Men clearly favour National/ ACT/ NZ First while women narrowly favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori
On an overall basis men are heavily in favour of the new National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 65.5%, more than double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 31%.
In contrast, women marginally favour the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 50% - only 5% points ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 45%.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest among men aged 18-49 with 69% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First more than double the 27% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for National (42%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed. This group also has the highest support for ACT on 20.5% - higher than the support for the Labour Party which registers only 13.5% in this demographic.
Older men aged 50+ also favour the governing coalition with 62.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 34.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are clearly behind the new governing coalition with a majority of 56% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 43% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. The Labour Party has its strongest support amongst this demographic attracting 33% support.
However, younger women aged 18-49 are the only major demographic group which favours the governing Labour/Greens on 57% well ahead of the governing National/ACT/ NZ First coalition on 33%.
This demographic is the core of support for the Greens at 30%, more than double the support the Greens attract from any other gender and age group analysed. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 are drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | Feb. 2024 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 35.5 | 32 | 23 | 40.5 | 40 | 42 | 38 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 12 | 5.5 | 3 | 8 | 18.5 | 20.5 | 16.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | 6.5 | 8 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 55 | 45 | 33 | 56 | 65.5 | 69 | 62.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 21.5 | 26 | 18.5 | 33 | 16 | 13.5 | 18.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 30 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 5.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 41 | 50 | 57 | 43 | 31 | 27 | 34.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 41.5 | 33.5 | 34 | 32.5 | 49.5 | 50 | 49 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 43.5 | 51 | 57 | 44.5 | 36 | 35.5 | 36.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 98 | 82.5 | 77 | 88 | 113.5 | 114.5 | 112.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 15 | 15.5 | 9 | 23 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is above 100 for men of all ages, but not women
Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating fell 3pts to 98 in February 2024.
A plurality of men, 49.5% (up 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 36% (down 0.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 113.5 (up 6pts) and up a massive 46.5pts since the New Zealand Election.
The Government Confidence Rating of older men aged 50+ was down slightly by 5.5pts to 112.5. However, there was a big increase for younger men aged 18-49, up 14.5pts to 114.5 – now the highest of any group.
Among women overall now a clear majority of 51% (up 5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only a third, 33.5% (down 6% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 82.5 (down 11pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped by 5.5pts to 77 – the lowest of any gender and age group analysed while Government Confidence fell 17.5pts to 88 for women aged 50+ - clearly the largest fall for any group.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the honeymoon continues for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s new National-led Government (55%) with the coalition enjoying an almost 15% points lead over the Parliamentary Opposition (41%):
“Support for the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition grew 3.5% points to 55% in February and an even more commanding lead over the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 41% (down 1%).
“The massive gender split in support continues with a clear majority of men, 65.5%, supporting the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 31% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a massive difference of 34.5% points.
“In contrast, a bare majority of 50% of women support the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party opposition compared to 45% that support the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition – a difference of only 5% points. Overall, this represents a 39.5% points difference between men and women.
“This difference is starkest for younger New Zealanders. Men aged 18-49 support the governing coalition by 42% points over the Parliamentary Opposition while women of that age support the Parliamentary Opposition by 24% points – a massive overall gender difference of 66% points.
“Different gender and age groups favour different parties. Younger men aged 18-49 provide the highest support for both National (42%) and ACT (20.5%). In contrast, older women aged 50+ are the largest supporter of Labour (33%).
“Younger people aged 18-49 are the strongest supporters of the Greens and it is younger women aged 18-49 who support the Greens (30%) more than any other party – ahead of National in a clear second place on 23%. Younger men are the second biggest supporters of the Greens on 12.5%, but not to the same degree as their female counterparts.
“Although their support increased in February, New Zealanders were slightly less confident about the direction of the country as a whole – the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down by 3pts to 98 after only one month in positive territory.
“Now 43.5% of New Zealanders say ‘the country is going in the wrong direction’ compared to 41.5% that say ‘the country is going in the right direction.’. However, despite the reversal this month, Roy Morgan Government Confidence is still up by a massive 29.5 points since hitting a low of only 68.5 in July 2023.
“The Government Confidence Rating is over 30pts higher for men (113.5) than women (82.5). Both younger men aged 18-49 (114.5) and older men aged 50+ (112.5) have far higher Government Confidence than their female counterparts. Women aged 50+ have Government Confidence of 88 and women aged 18-49 have the lowest Government Confidence of only 77.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
