Roy Morgan Research
June 12, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunges 3.5pts to 77.0 in the first full week of winter – lowest so far this year

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9500

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence plunged 3.5pts to 77.0 this week and has now spent a record 71 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is still 4.3 points above the same week a year ago, June 5-11, 2023 (72.7), but 5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.0.

This is the lowest level of Consumer Confidence so far this year.

There was a consistent theme around most of the States this week with Consumer Confidence dropping sharply in Victoria, WA and SA, and down in NSW, but unchanged in Queensland.

There were declines across the index this week with all five questions declining led by questions related to the next 12 months in terms of personal finances and the Australian economy.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 2ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Views on personal finances over the next year also fell this week, with just over a quarter of Australians, 27% (down 4ppts) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year) while another 36% (up 1ppt) are expecting to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year).

Short-term economic confidence

  • In addition, only 7% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year) compared to 39% (up 4ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year).

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term also declined this week with 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 21% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • There was little change to net buying intentions this week with just over a fifth, 22% (up 1ppt), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a slim majority of 51% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recorded its largest weekly fall of the year to drop below 80pts for the first time in six months. There were broad-based declines across all subindices, possibly in response to last week’s GDP data which confirmed Australia’s economic growth is very weak. Households were particularly wary about the year ahead, with subindices for the 12-month outlook for the economy and households’ own financial situation recording their largest weekly declines of the year. This leaves both subindices at their lowest levels since November. Across the housing cohorts, confidence is at a 2024 low for households with a mortgage and those who own their home outright, but not for renters, despite a 6.3pt fall in confidence last week.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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