Roy Morgan Research
June 25, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged after the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9510

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.4 this week after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at their highest level since December 2011. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 73 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.5 points above the same week a year ago, June 19-25, 2023 (74.9), but is still 1.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.9.

A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows there were increases in the two largest States of NSW and Victoria, but modest declines in the other States of Queensland, WA and SA.

There were slight declines this week in terms of views on personal finances over the next 12 months which were equally matched by small improvements for whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy major household items’.

Current financial conditions

  • Now just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 52% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Views on personal finances over the next year improved this week, with under a third of Australians, 30% (down 3ppts) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 35% (up 3ppts) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • In addition, only 8% (down 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 35% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was unchanged this week with 12% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 22% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • There was a slight improvement to net buying intentions this week with a quarter, 25% (up 4ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 48% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

The RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold did not shift ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence last week. The index remained relatively stable, at a very low 80.4pts. Households remain apprehensive about their own financial situation over the next year, with the subindex declining 6.2pts last week and the four-week moving average falling to a 2024 low.

However, the time to buy a major household item subindex rose 5.2pts to its highest level since late January. This may be linked to the ramp up of end-of-financial year sales events as retailers try and entice households to spend.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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