ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.3pts to 84.5 after higher-than-expected ABS CPI for September quarter ends speculation about more interest rate cuts this year
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.3pts to 84.5 and is now 2pts lower than a year ago, October 28 – November 3, 2024 (86.5), and 2.1pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.6.
An analysis by State shows a fairly consistent result with Consumer Confidence down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but up marginally in Queensland.
Driving the index lower this week were small declines in confidence about personal financial situations as well as the performance of the Australian economy over the next year.
Over a fifth of Australians, 22% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to an unchanged plurality of 42% that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Views on personal finances over the next year were down this week with 26% (down 2ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year was down this week with 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians, expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost a third, 32% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
However, net views regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term improved from a week ago with 12% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a quarter, 26% (down 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with 21% (down 1ppt) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 35% (unchanged) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
Last week’s Q3 CPI print pointed to a stalling in annual disinflation and likely supported the jump in ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ of 0.4ppt. The trimmed mean result of 3.0% is likely to lead to a hold from the RBA in November, which may be pulling down confidence in household future financial conditions. ANZ Research expects the RBA to hold the cash rate at 3.60% at its meeting today, and expects the final 25bp rate cut in H1 2026.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has been trending down recently across all housing cohorts, with renters currently facing the lowest confidence levels. This is in contrast to the rate hiking period, when homeowners with mortgages had the lowest average confidence level.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
