Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoys third honeymoon as ALP strengthens two-party preferred lead in May: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%

In May the ALP enjoyed a surge in support after winning the Federal Election on Saturday May 3 with the ALP on 58.5% (up 3.2% since the Federal Election) well ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 41.5% (down 3.2%) on a two-party preferred basis, the latest Roy Morgan survey finds.

The Albanese Government’s second election victory netted the party 94 seats in the House of Representatives – equaling the all-time record of the Howard Government at the 1996 Federal Election.

In addition, the two-party preferred result – currently at 55.3% for the ALP according to the AEC – is the largest since Malcolm Fraser won the 1975 Federal Election for the Coalition with a two-party preferred result of 55.7%. The ALP’s two-party preferred result is (at present) the highest since World War II.

In the month of May primary support for the ALP increased to 37% (up 2.4% since the Federal Election) and is clearly ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 31% (down 0.8%).

Support for the Greens dropped 0.7% from the Federal Election to 11.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.4% to 6%. In addition, support for Independents/Other Parties was at 14.5% (down 0.5%).

In effect, the ALP has increased its support since the Federal Election at the expense of all other parties – including the Liberal-National Coalition, Greens, One Nation and Independents/ Other Parties.

ALP leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States

The ALP now leads the L-NP Coalition on two-party preferred terms in all six States – including Queensland, the only State the Coalition won a majority of the vote at the recent Federal Election.

In New South Wales the ALP is up 3.5%, up 3% in Victoria, up 2.7% in Western Australia and is up 3.1% in Queensland and gained the lead (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%).

The ALP’s largest two-party preferred lead is in Tasmania with over 70% of the two-party preferred vote and the party maintains a large lead in South Australia.

Two-party preferred vote in every State & Territory: May 2025

NSW:                ALP 59% (up 3.5% since the Federal Election) cf. L-NP 41% (down 3.5%).

Victoria:           ALP 59.5% (up 3%) cf. L-NP 40.5% (down 3%).

Queensland:     ALP 52.5% (up 3.1%) cf. LNP 47.5% (down 3.1%).

WA:                  ALP 58.5% (up 2.7%) cf. L-NP 41.5% (down 2.7%).

SA:                   ALP 58.5% (down 0.7%) cf. L-NP 41.5% (up 0.7%).

Tasmania:        ALP 70.5% (up 7.2%) cf. L-NP 29.5% (down 7.2%).

ALP holds large two-party preferred leads for both genders after large election win (May 2025)

The ALP holds large two-party preferred leads amongst both genders following the party’s record-breaking win at last month’s Federal Election.

Women:           ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%.

Men:                 ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

Analysis by age shows the ALP leading for all age groups aged under 65 (May 2025)

The ALP’s largest lead is for people aged 18-34 with ALP support at over two-thirds of this age group while the closest result is for people aged 65+ with the Coalition holding a narrow lead: L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

18-34:               ALP 70% cf. L-NP 30%.

35-49:               ALP 62.5% cf. L-NP 37.5%.

50-64:               ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

65+:                  L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating leaps after election, but still under 100

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 15.5 points to 97 during May following the Federal Election on the first Saturday of May.

Now a plurality of 44% (down 8.5% since late April) of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to 41% (up 7% since late April) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 5,128 Australian electors from May 5 – June 1, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 0.4% from the 5.6% who voted ‘Informal’ at the recent Federal Election) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Roy Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.