ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increases to 98.8 – highest so far this year
A wintry sunrise
Key points
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 5.9 points to 98.8 in June, a welcome bounce after a fall last month and the largest monthly increase in the index so far this year.
- The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item (the best retail indicator) lifted 3 points, but at -7 it’s very soft.
- Inflation expectations lifted 0.3pts to 4.9%, the highest since April 2023. That’s probably got quite a lot to do with food price inflation, which is running at 4.4%.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index, made up of forward-looking questions rose 8 points to 104.8, recovering last month’s fall. The current conditions index rose 3 points to 89.8.
- Net perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 3 points but are still in the red at -13% with over a quarter of New Zealanders, 26% (up 2% points) saying they are 'better off financially' than this time last year compared to 39% (down 1% point) now saying they are 'worse off financially'.
- In a note of optimism, a net 20% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, up 8 points on a month ago with 43% (up 6% points) expecting to be 'better off financially' this time next year compared to 23% (down 2% points) expecting to be 'worse off financially'.
- A net 7% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, an improvement of 3 points on a month ago, but still weak with 41% (down 2% points) saying now is a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to only 34% (unchanged) who say now is a 'good time to buy' major household items.
- Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months rose 7 points to -13%. The 5-year-ahead measure recovered much of last month’s fall, up 8 points to +7.
- House price inflation expectations were steady at 3.6% year-on-year.
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations lifted from 4.6% to 4.9%.
- For charts see page 4 of the linked PDF.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 5.9 points to 98.8 in June, with all component questions higher, though many indicators remain subdued, as figure 2 in the linked PDF shows.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
