ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased slightly to 4.7% in mid-June – up from 4.6% for the month of May
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were 4.7% for the week of June 16-22, 2025, up 0.1% points from the month of May, following a volatile period for the measure in early June.
A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2025 shows the measure at 4.6% for the month – a decrease of 0.2% points from April and level with the near four year low reached in February 2025 (4.6%).
Looking back over the last year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a band of 4.2% - 5.2% since the start of May 2024 and averaged 4.8%. In addition, the latest information on weekly Inflation Expectations is available to view each week in the Roy Morgan Weekly Update video on YouTube.
Monthly Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviewing an average of 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month (April 2010 – May 2025).
Average retail petrol prices dropped to $1.73 per litre in May; their lowest level since September 2022
During May, average retail petrol prices dropped to their lowest in over two-and-a-half years. Average retail petrol prices started the month at $1.78 per litre and dropped to $1.71 for the last two weeks of May. This represented a decline of six cents per litre for the whole month compared to April.
After May ended, average retail petrol prices have rebounded in recent weeks and jumped up as high as $1.81 per litre in early June, after previously spending 10 weeks below this mark from late March until early June. This is the first time since early February 2022, before the launch of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that average retail petrol prices had been at that low level over so many weeks.
Average retail petrol prices hit near three-year lows in May, but have since rebounded – and this volatility is reflected in the weekly Inflation Expectations of Australians which have moved in a band of 0.5% between 4.5-5% during May and so far in June. On a weekly level, Inflation Expectations have increased three times, decreased four times and been unchanged for one week during this period.
Looking longer-term, average retail petrol prices have now been at, or above, $1.70 per litre for a record 144 straight weeks since mid-September 2022 – well over two years. In mid-June average retail petrol prices hit a high of $1.81 per litre – the highest level for over two months since late March.
Looking back average retail petrol prices have now averaged $1.86 per litre since late February 2024, but this has dropped to an average of $1.79 per litre since late February 2025 over the last 17 weeks. The reduction in petrol prices this year has clearly lessened inflation pressures and was no doubt a key factor for the Reserve Bank behind its decision to cut interest rates in February and again in late May.
Australian average retail petrol prices (cents per litre) weekly: 2021 – 2025
Source: Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) weekly reports: https://www.aip.com.au/pricing/weekly-prices-reports.
The latest official ABS Monthly annual CPI estimate at 2.4% for the year to April 2025 is directly within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle. Official estimates of inflation have now been within the preferred target range for nine months since August 2024.
The drop in official estimates of inflation led to the first cut in official interest rates for over four years since the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic by the RBA in mid-February by +0.25% to 4.1% and there are widespread expectations the RBA will make an additional cut to interest rates again in early July.
The next ABS Monthly CPI estimate for May 2025 is due to be released this week on Wednesday.
Inflation Expectations were highest in Queensland and Tasmania at 5% or more in May
A look at Monthly Inflation Expectations on a State-based level for May shows mixed results with an increase in Queensland, and unchanged result in Western Australia and falls in the four other States.
The only increase was in Queensland, up 0.2% points to 5.2% and now clearly the highest Inflation Expectations of any State. Queensland has now had the highest Inflation Expectations of all five mainland States for seven out of the last eight months since October 2024.
In contrast, Inflation Expectations fell in the four other States and drove the national figure down for May. Inflation Expectations fell the most in Tasmania, down by 0.4% points to 4.7%. In Victoria, Inflation Expectations dropped by 0.2% points to 4.6% - and are now in line with the national average.
Inflation Expectations are now below the national average in South Australia, down 0.3% points to 4.5%, and lowest of all in New South Wales, down 0.3% points to 4.4%. This is the first time New South Wales have had the lowest Inflation Expectations of all States for exactly a year, since June 2024.
Inflation Expectations in Country Areas dropped 0.2% points to 4.9% in May and were down 0.2% points to 4.5% in Capital Cities – a similar drop in the two differing regions.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says weekly Inflation Expectations were 4.7% in mid-June, up 0.1% points from the May estimate of 4.6%, as petrol prices tracked higher in June as tensions in the Middle East increased with the Israeli strike on Iran adding to inflationary fears:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in Australia have increased in June and are now at 4.7%, up 0.1% points from the month of May (4.6%). Before increasing in recent weeks, Inflation Expectations had decreased in the month of May by 0.2% points from April.
“The increase in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks comes as tensions in the Middle East have increased markedly – especially following the Israeli strikes on Iran which began just over a week ago. These strikes have led to concerns about the supply of oil and gas to world markets and the potential for these supplies to be disrupted causing a spike in energy prices worldwide.
“As long as tensions remain high and the conflict continues, there remains the chance the confrontation between Israel and Iran will expand to a wider war in the region with the chances of a disruption to energy supplies heightened – and a clear flow on effect to global inflation.
“The conflict has already led to an increase in petrol prices at the pump – now at $1.75 per litre compared to a near three year low of $1.70 per litre in May. Further conflict will see petrol prices continue to rise with clear downstream impacts on inflation and inflation expectations going forward.
“The good news for Australians is that the official ABS inflation estimates have continued within the Reserve Bank’s preferred target range of 2-3% over the course of the economic cycle – at 2.4% for the year to April 2025. Inflation Expectations have now been within the target range for nine straight months since August 2024 averaging 2.4% during this period.
“Looking forward, the Reserve Bank is expected to lower interest rates in the next two weeks in early July, likely by +0.25% to 3.6%, and next meets in mid-August. By that time the latest June Quarterly Inflation figures (July 30, 2025) will have been released for the board to consider.
“The sharp reduction in inflationary pressures in the broader economy year during which official annual inflation fell from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024 – a fall of 1.7% points – led to the Reserve Bank cutting official interest rates in mid-February and mid-May by a total of 0.5% to 3.85%.
“The volatility in energy prices, and Inflation Expectations, in recent weeks and months shows just how sensitive Australians are to changes in the prices of essential everyday goods – like petrol.”
See below for a comprehensive list of RBA interest rate changes during the time-period charted above.
The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,300 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade from June 2015 – May 2025 and includes interviews with 4,090 Australians aged 14+ in May 2025.
For comments and information about Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations data, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
The questions used to calculate the Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index.
1) Prices: “During the next 2 years, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?”
2a) If stay where they are now: “Do you mean that prices will go up at the same rate as now or that prices in general will not go up during the next 2 years?
2b) If go up or go down: “By about what per cent per year do you expect prices to (go up/ go down) on average during the next 2 years?”
3) “Would that be (x%) per year, or is that the total for prices over the next 2 years?”
The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is a forward-looking indicator unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and is based on continuous (weekly) measurement, and monthly reporting. The Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index is current and relevant.
| Monthly Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Index (2010 – 2025) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Yearly Average |
| 2010 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| 2012 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.8 |
| 2013 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2014 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 2015 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2018 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| 2019 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
| 2021 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2023 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 | |||||||
| Monthly Average | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Overall: Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations Average: 4.8 | |||||||||||||
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Report – Including Inflation Expectations
To learn more about the trends for Inflation Expectations as well as Consumer Confidence for different segments and demographics throughout the Australian community, purchase the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report.
RBA interest rates changes during the time-period measured: 2010-2025.
RBA – Interest rate increasing cycle (2010):
2010
April 2010: +0.25% to 4.25%; May 2010: +0.25% to 4.75%, November 2010: +0.25% to 5%.
RBA – Interest rate cutting cycle (2011-2013, 2015-2016 & 2019-2020):
2011 – 2013
November 2011: -0.25% to 4.5%; December 2011: -0.25% to 4.25%; May 2012: -0.5% to 3.75%;
June 2012: -0.25% to 3.5%; October 2012: -0.25% to 3.25%; December 2012: -0.25% to 3%;
May 2013: -0.25% to 2.75%; August 2013: -0.25% to 2.5%.
2014
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2014.
2015 – 2016
February 2015: -0.25% to 2.25%; May 2015: -0.25% to 2%; May 2016: -0.25% to 1.75%;
August 2016: -0.25% to 1.5%.
2017 – 2018
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2017-18.
2019 – 2020
June 2019: -0.25% to 1.25%; July 2019: -0.25% to 1%; October 2019: -0.25% to 0.75%;
March 4, 2020: -0.25% to 0.5%, March 20, 2020: -0.25% to 0.25% & November 6, 2020: -0.15% to 0.1%.
RBA – Interest rate increasing cycle (2022-23):
2022
May 2022: +0.25% to 0.35%, June 2022: +0.5% to 0.85%; July 2022: +0.5% to 1.35%;
August 2022: +0.5% to 1.85%; September 2022: +0.5% to 2.35%; October 2022: +0.25% to 2.6%; November 2022: +0.25% to 2.85% and December 2022: +0.25% to 3.1%.
2023
February 2023: +0.25% to 3.35%; March 2023: +0.25% to 3.6%; May 2023: +0.25% to 3.85%;
June 2023: +0.25% to 4.10%; November 2023: +0.25% to 4.35%.
2024
There were no RBA interest rate changes during 2024.
RBA – Interest rate cutting cycle (2025):
2025
February 2025: -0.25% to 4.10%; May 2025: -0.25% to 3.85%.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
