NZ: In June, support for National-led Government surges to highest level so far this year
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 51.5% (up 1.5% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition virtually unchanged on 44.5% (down 0.5% points) – the largest lead for the National-led Government for nine months since September 2024.
This is the first month this year the National-led Government has attained a majority of the electorate’s support in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. Within the National-led Government support for National was virtually unchanged at 32%, support for ACT was little changed at 11.5% and support for NZ First increased 1.5% points to 8% - driving the overall increase.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was virtually unchanged at 28.5%, support for the Greens dropped 0.5% to 11% - this is the lowest level of support for the party since the last New Zealand Election in October 2023, and support for the Maori Party was little changed at 5%.
A further 4% (down 1%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (unchanged) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 1% (down 1% point) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win a majority of 64 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for June would lead to 64 seats (down four seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 56 seats (up one seat) for the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 40 seats (down nine seats from the election), support for ACT would equal 14 seats (up three seats) and NZ First would win 10 seats (up two seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and the Maori Party would win six seats (unchanged).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 812 electors from May 26 – June 22, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 3% (up 0.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased 14.5pts to 95 in June
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 14.5pts to 95 in June. Now a plurality of 46% (down 8.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 41% (up 6% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand increased 5.9pts to 98.8 in June and is over 10 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 87.2 on June 23-29, 2025.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by over 25%; women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori by 15%+
The ‘gender split’ continues in June with a majority of 62.5% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 33.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
In contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 56.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40%.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 71.5% compared to only 27% for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for right-wing governing partners National (39.5%) and NZ First (15%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 also heavily favour the National-led governing coalition with 53% support compared to 40% support for the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for ACT (17%) is equal highest amongst this gender and age group as well as men aged 50+.
Younger women aged 18-49 drive the support for the Opposition and heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 68.5%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 27.5%. Support for the Greens (23.5%) and the Maori Party (13%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 51% ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 46%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (37.5%) and Labour (36.5%) at a total of 74% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | June 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 32 | 29 | 19 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 29.5 | 39.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 6.5 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 8 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 7 | 11 | 6.5 | 15 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 51.5 | 40 | 27.5 | 51 | 62.5 | 53 | 71.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28.5 | 34.5 | 32 | 36.5 | 22.5 | 25.5 | 20 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11 | 13.5 | 23.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 5.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 5 | 8.5 | 13 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 44.5 | 56.5 | 68.5 | 46 | 33.5 | 40 | 27 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 41 | 33.5 | 31.5 | 35.5 | 49 | 46.5 | 52.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 46 | 55 | 58 | 51.5 | 37 | 37.5 | 37 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 95 | 78.5 | 73.5 | 84 | 112 | 109 | 115.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 13 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 10.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is again highest for older men and lowest for younger women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased significantly in June 2025, up 14.5pts to 95.
An increased plurality of men, 49% (up 8.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 37% (down 9% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating in positive territory at 112 (up 17.5pts).
The increase in Government Confidence for men in June was driven by a sharp increase for younger men aged 18-49, jumping 29pts to 109 and into positive territory – easily the largest increase of any gender and age group analysed, while the indicator was up slightly for older men aged 50+ by 4pts to 115.5 – once again, the highest of any gender and age group analysed.
Among women now a majority of 55% (down 7.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while around a third, 33.5% (up 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 78.5 (up 11.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased 9.5 points to 73.5 and the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ increased by 13.5 points to 84.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the National-led Government has stretched its lead to the greatest margin so far this year in June after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates in April and May by a total of 0.5% to 3.25% - the lowest rate since late 2022:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) increased for a third straight month in June, up 1.5% points to 51.5% and now clearly ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition (Labour Party, Greens, Maori Party) on 44.5% (down 0.5% points) – the gap of 7% points is the largest between the Government and Opposition for nine months since October 2024.
“The rise in support for the Government was due to a surge in support for NZ First, up 1.5% points to 8%. Support for National (32%) and ACT (11.5%) was virtually unchanged.
“If a New Zealand Election were held now these support levels would result in 64 seats for the National-led Government and 56 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – a majority of eight seats in the 120 seat Parliament – depending on any potential ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party won seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“Support for the National-led Government has increased over the last two months as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has continued to cut interest rates in both April and May to 3.25%. The RBNZ has now cut interest rates by a total of 2.25% since August 2024.
“Following the interest rate cuts in the last two months there has been an increase in June in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating which increased 14.5pts to 95 and ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence which increased by 5.9pts to 98.8.
“There is a continuing gender – and age – split. The National-led Government is heavily favoured over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition by men aged 50+ (71.5% cf. 27%), young men aged 18-49 (53% cf. 40%) and women aged 50+ (51% cf. 46%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group to favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – by over 40% points. Support in this age group is at 68.5% for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition compared to only 27.5% for the National-led Government.
“For the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition to provide a real challenge to win next year’s election the parties of the left will need to find a way to broaden their appeal to both older women aged 50+ and men in general.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
