NZ: In May, for an eighth straight month, both National and Labour are supported by fewer than a third of the electorate
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 50% (up 1% point) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45% (down 2% points) with both failing to muster a majority of public support.
This is the fifth straight month the two main blocks representing both sides of politics have fallen short of a majority of support. There were changes in the composition of support for the Government with support for ACT up 3% points to 12% - the highest support for ACT so far this year, while support for NZ First dropped 2.5% points to 6.5%. Support for National was little changed at 31.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was virtually unchanged at 29%, support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 11.5% and support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 4.5%.
A further 5% (up 1%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (up 0.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 2% (up 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win a majority of 63 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for May would lead to 63 seats (down five seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 57 seats (up two seats) for the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 40 seats (down nine seats), support for ACT would equal 15 seats (up four seats) and NZ First would win 8 seats (unchanged).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 37 seats (up three seats), Greens support would mean 14 seats (down one seat) and the Maori Party would win six seats (unchanged).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 799 electors from April 28 – May 25, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 2.5% (down 2.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 17pts to 80.5 in May
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 17pts to 80.5 in May. Now a plurality of 54.5% (up 11.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 35% (down 5.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 5.3pts to 92.9 in May and is about 15 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 86.7 on June 2-8, 2025.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by over 20%; women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori by 10%+
The ‘gender split’ continues in May with a majority of 58% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 35.5% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
In contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 54.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 42%.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at 61.5% compared to 35.5% for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for right-wing governing partners ACT (21%) and NZ First (11%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Younger men aged 18-49 also heavily favour the National-led governing coalition with 54.5% support compared to 36% support for the Parliamentary Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for National (39%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other gender and age group analysed.
Younger women aged 18-49 drive the support for the Opposition and heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 67.5%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 31%. Support for Labour (34%), the Greens (20.5%) and the Maori Party (13%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 51% ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 43.5%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (37.5%) and Labour (31%) at a total of 68.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | May 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 18 | 37.5 | 34.5 | 39 | 29.5 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 12 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 7 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 6.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 11 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 50 | 42 | 31 | 51 | 58 | 54.5 | 61.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 29 | 32.5 | 34 | 31 | 26 | 25.5 | 26.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 11.5 | 15 | 20.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4.5 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 45 | 54.5 | 67.5 | 43.5 | 35.5 | 36 | 35.5 |
| Others | 5.6 | 5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 3 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 35 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 30.5 | 40.5 | 33 | 49 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 54.5 | 62.5 | 64.5 | 60 | 46 | 53 | 37.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 80.5 | 67 | 64 | 70.5 | 94.5 | 80 | 111.5 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 10.5 | 8 | 7 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 14 | 13.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is again highest for older men and lowest for younger women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped substantially in May 2025, down 17pts to 80.5. A rising plurality of men, 46% (up 5.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 40.5% (down 4.5% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence rating marginally in negative territory at 94.5 (down 10pts).
The drop in Government Confidence for men in May was driven by a sharp decrease for younger men aged 18-49, plummeting 18.5pts to 80, while the indicator was virtually unchanged for older men aged 50+ at 111.5 – once again, clearly the highest of any gender and age group analysed.
Among women overall now a large majority of 62.5% (up 17% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while under a third, 29.5% (down 6.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 67 (down 23.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 dropped 13 points to 64 and again the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ plunged by 32 points to 70.5 – easily the largest decrease of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the National-led Government has stretched its lead to the greatest margin so far this year after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates in April and May by a total of 0.5% to 3.25% - the lowest rate since late 2022:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) has increased for a second straight month in May, up 1% point to 50% and now clearly ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition (Labour Party, Greens, Maori Party) on 45% (down 2% points) – the gap of 5% points is the largest between the Government and Opposition so far this year.
“The rise in support for the Government was due to a surge in support for ACT, up 3% points to 12% – its highest level of support so far this year. Support for National also increased marginally, up 0.5% points to 29%, however support for NZ First dropped 2.5% points to 6.5%.
“Despite the improvement for the National-led Government, neither side has gained a majority of support in the electorate so far this year indicating just how close the political contest in New Zealand is. The country faces a national election in just over a year in late 2026.
“If a New Zealand Election were held now these support levels would result in 63 seats for the National-led Government and 57 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – a majority of six seats in the 120 seat Parliament – depending on any potential ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party won seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“Support for the National-led Government has increased over the last two months as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has continued to cut interest rates in both April and May to 3.25%. The RBNZ has now cut interest rates by a total of 2.25% since August 2024.
“However, despite the interest rate cuts, confidence has fallen in May. The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating for May is down 17pts to 80.5 and ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 5.3pts to 92.9.
“There is a continuing gender – and age – split. The National-led Government is heavily favoured over the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition by men aged 50+ (61.5% cf. 35.5%), young men aged 18-49 (54.5% cf. 36%) and women aged 50+ (51% cf. 43.5%).
“In contrast, younger women aged 18-49 are the only gender and age group to favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – by a stunning 36.5% points – the largest gap of the four gender and age groups analysed. Support from this age group is at 67.5% for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition compared to only 31% for the National-led Government.
“For the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition to provide a real challenge to win next year’s election the parties of the left will need to find a way to broaden their appeal to both older women aged 50+ and men in general.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
